A Winning Day at the Races!
September 14th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays
*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,009/21,511 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,908/21,511. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.
*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…
*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…
Aqueduct Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#3 Papa Golf 5-2 19 4th
#7 Vekoma Rides 9-2 18 1st $10.80
#2 McHale 6-1 18
#4 Moment’s Notice 8-5 17 3rd $2.10
Race 2:
#6 Saratoga Warrior 3-1 16 scratched
#3 Pandemic Hero 9-2 15
#4 Gimme Gimme 8-1 14 3rd $3.30
#2 Scheduling Dude 5-2 14 1st $8.50
Race 3:
#4 Neuschwanstein 9-2 27 3rd $2.50
#2 Anthracite 6-1 26
#7 Borletti (IRE) 2-1 25 scratched
#3 Magnificent Mile 6-1 25 4th
Race 4:
#4 Starlight Dancer 6-1 16 2nd $7.90
#8 She Is All Business 4-1 16 4th
#6 Quite Continental 9-2 15 1st $7.80
#5 Lady Laoban 5-1 15
Race 5:
#1 Allaboutthemoney 8-5 28 2nd $2.50
#5 Lord Captain 6-1 27
#3 Bronx Bomber 6-1 26 3rd $3.20
#2 Cumberland Blues 10-1 25 1st $23.00
Race 6:
#4 Yo Banana Boy 5-2 29 2nd $3.50
#3 Very Stormy 8-1 28 4th
#7 Land d’Oro 8-5 27 3rd $2.10
#5 Tall Paul 2-1 27 1st $5.10 Spr $116.40
Race 7:
#4 Valuation Metric 7-2 19 2nd $4.00
#5 Barricade 9-2 19 1st $7.30 Ex $26.20
#2 Davy Crockett 5-2 18 3rd $2.60 Tri $66.00
#8 Don’t Ghost Me 6-1 17
Race 8:
#6 Fantastical 8-1 30 2nd $6.50
#9 Leslie’s Humor 5-1 29 3rd $4.00
#7 In Our Time 5-2 28
#1 Risk Threshold (IRE) 9-2 28 1st $6.40
Race 9:
#4 Beachwalker 6-1 29
#6 Briterdayzahead 2-1 29 1st $4.20
#1 Mister J T 3-1 28 2nd $3.80
#5 Milton the Monster 8-1 27
Race 10:
#10 Macanga 8-1 32
#5 Justdeny 8-1 31 2nd $7.50
#7 Lady Mary (GER) 7-2 30
#4 Beautiful Love (IRE) 4-1 29 1st $9.20
Race 11:
#7 Out of Favor (IRE) 5-2 16
#5 Poker Joker 6-1 15
#1 Trulli Warrior 7-2 14
#3 Flicker (GB) 5-1 14
Aqueduct Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 3,7,2,4
Race 2: 6,3,4,2 *6 scratched using 3,4,2,7
Race 3: 4,2,7 *7 scratched using 4,2,3
Race 4: 4,8,6
Race 5: 1,5
$.50 Ticket: $144
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 6,3,4,2 *6 scratched using 3,4,2,7
Race 3: 4,2,7 *7 scratched using 4,2,3
Race 4: 4,8,6,5
Race 5: 1,5,3
$.50 Ticket: $72
Pick 5 (4-8):
Race 4: 4,8,6,5
Race 5: 1,5,3
Race 6: 4,3,7
Race 7: 4,5,2
Race 8: 6,9,7
$.50 Ticket: $162
Pick 4 (5-8):
Race 5: 1,5,3,2
Race 6: 4,3,7,5
Race 7: 4,5,2
Race 8: 6,9,7
$.50 Ticket: $72
Pick 6:
Race 6: 4,3,7
Race 7: 4,5,2
Race 8: 6,9,7
Race 9: 4,6
Race 10: 10,5,7
Race 11: 7
$1.00 Ticket: $162
Late Pick 5:
Race 7: 4,5,2,8
Race 8: 6,9,7
Race 9: 4,6,1
Race 10: 10,5,7
Race 11: 7,5
$.50 Ticket: $108
Late Pick 4:
Race 8: 6,9,7,1
Race 9: 4,6,1,5
Race 10: 10,5,7,4
Race 11: 7,5,1
$.50 Ticket: $96
Churchill Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#6 Temecula 5-2 29 4th
#1 Miracle Worker 7-2 28 2nd $4.54
#3 Findaway 5-1 28
#2 Parkway 9-2 27 3rd $4.16
Race 2:
#8 Sally O’Malley 3-1 16 1st $5.86
#11 Vin d’Or 15-1 15
#7 Beach Bunny 9-2 15
#4 Ella Elizabeth 6-1 14
Race 3:
#6 Mandalorian 5-2 28 3rd $3.00
#8 Mo Rum 10-1 28
#5 My Friend Louie 12-1 27
#1 Merit 9-2 26
Race 4:
#7 Prestwick 10-1 17
#9 Leisure Time 8-1 16
#4 Union Mist 5-2 15 1st $6.60
#1 Vanished 3-1 15
Race 5:
#6 Unsung Melody 3-1 33
#3 Positano Sunset 5-2 32 2nd $2.96
#2 Zeitlos 8-5 31 1st $4.88
#4 Happy Am I 6-1 31 3rd $3.46
Race 6:
#10 Star of Wonder 3-1 32 1st $6.78
#12 Attache 7-2 31 2nd $4.32 Ex $27.28
#9 Own the Field 5-1 31
#7 Think Big 5-1 30
Race 7:
#4 Loved 5-1 35
#7 Shotgun Hottie 2-1 34 3rd $2.40
#5 Pigalle 8-1 33 4th
#6 Corningstone 15-1 33 2nd $29.68
Race 8:
#14 Liam in the Dust 15-1 33 2nd $11.18
#13 Kimchi Cat 9-2 32
#6 Pretty Sure 12-1 31 4th
#12 Stilettos 4-1 31
Race 9:
#2 Closethegame Sugar 9-5 38
#10 Skelly 2-1 37 2nd $2.86
#6 Here Mi Song 8-1 36 3rd $4.22
#5 Disco Ball 12-1 34 scratched
Race 10:
#5 Owen Almighty 5-2 33 2nd $3.64
#10 Jonathan’s Way 9-2 32 1st $4.52 Ex $14.12
#8 Magnitude 8-1 31
#4 Authentic Strike 12-1 31
Race 11:
#11 Kinetic Control 3-1 18
#5 Tickled Quist 7-2 17
#7 Desert Aire 8-1 16
#2 Homer’s Odyssey 9-2 16
Churchill Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 6,1
Race 2: 8,11,7,4
Race 3: 6,8,5,1
Race 4: 7,9,4,1
Race 5: 6,3
$.50 Ticket: $128
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 8,11,7,4
Race 3: 6,8,5,1
Race 4: 7,9,4,1
Race 5: 6,3,2
$.50 Ticket: $96
Pick 5 (4-8):
Race 4: 7,9,4,1
Race 5: 6,3,2
Race 6: 10,12,9,7
Race 7: 4,7
Race 8: 14,13,6,2
$.50 Ticket: $192
Pick 4 (5-8):
Race 5: 6,3,2,4
Race 6: 10,12,9,7
Race 7: 4,7,5
Race 8: 14,13,6,2
$.50 Ticket: $96
Pick 6:
Race 6: 10,12,9,7
Race 7: 4,7,5
Race 8: 14,13,6,12
Race 9: 2,10
Race 10: 5,10
Race 11: 11,5,7,2
$.20 Ticket: $153.60
Late Pick 5:
Race 7: 4,7,5,6
Race 8: 14,13,6,12
Race 9: 2,10
Race 10: 5,10
Race 11: 11,5,7,2
$.50 Ticket: $192
Late Pick 4:
Race 8: 14,13,6,12
Race 9: 2,10
Race 10: 5,10,8,4
Race 11: 11,5,7,2
$.50 Ticket: $64
“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.
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