A Winning Day at the Races!

Monthly Archives: July 2018

August 1st , 2018 Stakes

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August 1st , 2018 Daily Comments

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August 1st , 2018 Today’s Plays

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August 1st , 2018 Daily Picks

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August 1st , 2018 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily through the Saratoga Meet. For Full Card Picks/Plays please visit the Member Area.

*Since the the launch of this site two years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 68% of the time, and top choice is first or second 42% of the time. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

* Will adjust picks if need be due to weather after scratches.

Saratoga Selections

Race 2 :           Strength Variable :

#5 Eight Minute Ellie 5-2                     25
#7 Heaven’s Creation 8-5                     24
#3 Giant Ending 9-2                               23
#6 Bridge of Sighs 8-1                            20

Race 5 :

#9 Smile More 5-1                                   21
#10 Our Circle of Love 2-1                     21
#1a Carnival Lass 6-1                              18
#5 Anazara 8-1                                          17

Race 8 :

#7 Heavenly Score 3-1                            32
#8 Your Love 2-1                                      31
#5 Cairenn 9-2                                          30
#4 Come Dancing 7-2                              28

Race 10 :

#7 Smash Williams 7-2                            23
#9 Flatexcel 6-1                                         22
#5 Musicality 20-1                                    20
#6 Bronze Age 4-1                                    19

Late Pick 4 :

Race 7 :  8,6,1,12

Race 8 :  7,8

Race 9 :  12,4,11,6

Race 10 : 7,9,5,6

$.50 Ticket :  $64

“Thoughts and Touts”

  • Public Handicappers – Ultimately , every wager you make is your wager. Digest all the information you can get your hands on and make educated decisions. Public Handicappers should be no more than a barometer. Take a look at everyone’s picks and listen to the case they make for that particular selection. There may be a horse that you overlooked, or didn’t like, that might necessitate further evaluation. There are no “experts” in this field, some may have a greater degree of success than others, but all will run hot and cold, its gambling, and there is so much that is out of your control.
  • Track Bias & Trips – You will hear these terms discussed ad nauseam. While they are worth noting, I think spending too much time on either is counterproductive. If you were to have a foot race with a guy on a beach and he was running near the water where the sand is packed down and wet and you were up higher on the beach in heavy dry sand, you would be at a disadvantage no doubt. But I am always skeptical as to whether a bias ever “truly” exists. “Speed has been winning all day”, it’s a “Gold” rail. (Insert eye roll here). Did you ever see a front runner take the four path gate to wire? They get on the rail and save ground. After a couple wins in this fashion, everybody is starting to alter their picks in the remaining races, and then closers start winning. Its something you are constantly chasing. If you’re ever at that track early morning you will see they make painstaking efforts to ensure the track is even all the way around. Its graded and the depth to the base is checked manually on foot. Sorry I just never bought the whole “Gold”, “Dead” rail angle. In my opinion, it’s more about one horse just outperforming the others on that given day. I do put some value in “Trips” , and it is incorporated into the system I use. But again , take it with a grain of salt. If a horse got shut-off in traffic or had to check badly in a race doesn’t mean that he should be given a disproportionate advantage in today’s race. That was three or four weeks ago, and the circumstances of that race are impossible to duplicate. Yes , he was loaded turning for home, and had he not had to check and gotten through on the rail he would have won. Different circumstances today, make a note of it , but don’t go overboard.

Email Questions

  • Can you tell me more about the system you use and how you developed it?

–  As I mention on the “About Us” page it is a numerical comparison of each horse in a race in relation to the other runners. The value assigned to a runner is unique to that race. For example if I were to take a particular horse and drop his/her pp’s in the body of each remaining race on the card the value would be different for each heat. I go  through upwards of thirty categories per race. I start with the basics, earnings. Average earnings per start : highest gets a value, second highest a value, third and so on. The whole earnings portion for a particular horse is broken down into percentages , earnings over each surface, dirt, turf , wet etc. Each gets a numerical value . Trainer and Jockey win % gets a value. Speed Figures for each horse are averaged and given a value. Where was the horse’s best Beyer on the pp’s? A year ago , or two races ago?  That info is assigned a value. Is this race a raise or drop in class? A drop from msw to maiden claiming gets a plus number, while a jump from maiden claiming to msw gets a negative number. Layoff’s get a value (positive or negative), 2-4 months, 4-6 months, 6 months to a year , a year or more all get different numbers. Is this race 2nd or 3rd off a layoff? Allowance to claiming, claiming to allowance, allowance to stake, claiming to stake, stake to allowance? etc. How many lengths beaten in recent starts ? How many tries at this level? Equipment changes , Lasix, 1st time, 2nd time? Sheet numbers also get evaluated and assigned a value. Where is the speed in the race? Fractional times get evaluated and I assign values there based on certain criteria. Is the horse stretching out in distance or cutting back? Works all get a value. There is much more to it, but you get the idea. I’m just taking all the same info everyone is looking at and simply developed a disciplined way of  quantifying it. Maiden races are more difficult , but I have a similar way of assigning a value to a runner , through works,  breeding, sale price’s etc. But here I will give more consideration to what I hear. There are people (trainers & exercise riders), without mentioning names, that I do touch base with on babies to watch that are training well. So is what I do different or better than what others are doing? That’s for you to decide. I don’t let emotions get involved and I don’t miss anything . Every race and every horse is evaluated the same , my top choice is the runner who grades out with the highest number. The hardest thing to do was decide what is an appropriate value to assign to a category, and that took trial and error over a period of years. Through decades you start to see trends in races , and what is important and should carry more weight. There are many categories that I did not mention that I consider important , that you might think are not important and maybe never even considered in your evaluation. It was just learning through trial and error and the school of hard knocks. In summation , the system that I have developed has an uncanny way of selecting live horses, often the triple and super are in the four selections I’m posting. I hope all that follow will continue to do so. It’s a great game, the ultimate challenge. Best of luck to everyone.

* “Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system  that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by four, five or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

July 30th , 2018 Free Picks & Plays

Check back Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s Picks/Plays.

July 30th , 2018

To access this content, you must purchase One Day Pass, Monthly Pass or Two Day/Weekend Pass, or log in if you are a member.

July 30th , 2018 Daily Picks

To access this content, you must purchase One Day Pass, Monthly Pass or Two Day/Weekend Pass, or log in if you are a member.

July 30th , 2018 Today’s Plays

To access this content, you must purchase One Day Pass, Monthly Pass or Two Day/Weekend Pass, or log in if you are a member.

July 30th , 2018 Free picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily through the Saratoga Meet. For Full Card Picks/Plays please visit the Member Area.

*Since the the launch of this site two years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 68% of the time, and top choice is first or second 42% of the time. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Use Coupon Code “spa18” with the Two Day Pass for free site full access today.

Saratoga Selections

Race 2 :         Strength Variable :

#1 Nominal Dollars 7-5                     28
#7 Crafty Concorde 9-2                      26
#4 Sal the Turtle 7-2                           25
#3 Etruscan 5-1                                    24

Race 3 :

#5 Hangman 6-1                                   29
#1 Pagliacci 4-1                                     28
#7 New York Song 4-1                          28
#8 Battle Station 3-1                            27

Race 8 :

#1 Haynesfest 2-1                                 28
#8 Special Relativity 7-2                      27
#7 Nocturnal Mission 6-1                    25
#5 Curiousncuriouser 9-2                    24

Race 9 :

#1 Soglio 3-1                                            32
#6 Snap Decision 6-1                              31
#7 Classic Covey 6-1                                30
#10 Channel Cat 5-1                                29

Early Pick 4 :

Race 3 :  1,5,7,8

Race 4 :  1,4,5

Race 5 :  2,5,10

Race 6 :  2,9

$.50 Ticket :  $36

* “Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by four, five or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.