November 16th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,269/21,947 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,109/21,947. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues will post Picks/Plays when able…

*Late Pick 5 for us last Saturday at Churchill Downs…$5,235.45 on a $96 ticket…

*Friday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#5 Long Legged Queen 5-2 18
#6 Endless Love 6-1 17
#1 Heavenly Girl 6-1 17
#3 Out too Late (GB) 3-1 16

Race 2:

#6 Toxic Gray 2-1 33
#3 Key Point 9-5 32
#1 Bonus Move 4-1 31
#4 Swinging Solo 10-1 30

Race 3:

#1 Man in Finance 8-5 31
#6 Kenny Be 2-1 30
#4 Phoebeinwonderland 10-1 29
#3 Soontobeking 9-2 28

Race 4:

#5 Looking for Ginny 9-2 16
#3 Looks First 3-1 15
#7 In All My Dreams 6-1 15
#2 Street View 2-1 14

Race 5:

#6 Bells Beach 3-1 30
#5 Sedona 2-1 29
#1 Save Us Melania 9-5 28
#2 Weigh the Risks 8-1 27

Race 6:

#7 Amplitude 3-1 31
#2 Fake Celebrity 8-1 30
#4 Mizertonic 6-1 29
#3 Slapintheface 2-1 28

Race 7:

#3 Valenzan Day 4-5 30
#8 Cumberland Blues 7-2 29
#6 Daddy Knows 12-1 27
#1 Steady Progress 15-1 26

Race 8:

#1 Autumn 2-1 16
#5 Starlight Dancer 4-1 15
#3 Alittlebitnaughty 6-1 14
#10 Detonate 10-1 14

Race 9:

#4 Jack and Jim 9-2 32
#6 Not for Hire 6-1 31
#10 Super Swift 8-1 30
#9 Early Adopter (GB) 3-1 30

Race 10:

#12 Spool 9-2 17
#2 Blue Eyed Scout 3-1 16
#6 Hattie Carroll 12-1 15
#10 Trulli Magic 4-1 14

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 5,6,1,3

Race 2: 6,3

Race 3: 1,6

Race 4: 5,3,7,2

Race 5: 6,5,1

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 6,3,1,4

Race 3: 1,6

Race 4: 5,3,7,2

Race 5: 6,5,1,2

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 5,3,7,2

Race 5: 6,5,1

Race 6: 7,2,4,3

Race 7: 3,8

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 6:

Race 5: 6,5

Race 6: 7,2,4,3

Race 7: 3

Race 8: 1,5

Race 9: 4,6,10

Race 10: 12,2

$1.00 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 7,2,4,3

Race 7: 3,8

Race 8: 1,5,3

Race 9: 4,6,10,9

Race 10: 12,2,6

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 3,8,6,1

Race 8: 1,5,3,10

Race 9: 4,6,10

Race 10: 12,2,6

$.50 Ticket: $72

Churchill Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#2 Proven Hope 8-1 27
#4 Principe Carlo 3-1 26
#3 Supremely 5-2 25
#1 Soaring Bird 9-2 25

Race 2:

#4 Heart Headed Woman 2-1 16
#3 American Honey 8-1 15
#6 Air Force Thunder 7-2 14
#1 Stratospheric 5-2 14

Race 3:

#11 Guns Loaded 4-1 20
#7 Shadow Coast 12-1 19
#9 Camp Hale 3-1 19
#2 Castle Run 8-1 18

Race 4:

#2 On a Spree 3-1 33
#6 Hoodlum 8-1 32
#5 Freedom Road 5-2 31
#8 Wandering West 10-1 30

Race 5:

#11 Boomin’ Belle 4-1 32
#5 Dana’s Beauty 4-5 32
#8 Ghostly Gal 9-2 31
#2 Lady Outofthe Blue 12-1 30

Race 6:

#1 Caramel Chip 2-1 34
#7 Cut Glass 15-1 33
#2 Concrete Glory 5-2 32
#8 Charter Oak 12-1 31

Race 7:

#11 Pens Street 6-1 32
#3 Goodbetterbest 5-1 31
#9 Mazoku 8-1 30
#6 Jubilant Joanie 7-2 30

Race 8:

#5 Final Verdict 2-1 34
#10 Hilarious Affair 3-1 33
#1 Balsa 8-1 33
#4 Cotton 8-1 32

Race 9:

#13 Critical Threat 8-1 AE 34
#8 Global Sensation 2-1 34
#1 Got Thunder 20-1 33
#9 Pure Panic 7-2 32
#7 Like a Saltshaker 4-1 31

Race 10:

#11 Surface to Air 8-1 35
#8 Bourbon Day 5-2 34
#2 General Mathis 12-1 33
#9 Laughing Boy 12-1 33

Race 11:

#8 Sugoi 2-1 36
#6 Harrow 3-1 35
#1 Bizzee Channel 15-1 34
#5 Huge Bigly 30-1 33

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 2,4,3,1

Race 2: 4,3,6,1

Race 3: 11,7,9

Race 4: 2,6,5

Race 5: 11,5

$.50 Ticket: $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 4,3,6,1

Race 3: 11,7,9,2

Race 4: 2,6,5,8

Race 5: 11,5

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 2,6,5

Race 5: 11,5,8

Race 6: 1,7,2

Race 7: 11,3,9,6

Race 8: 5,10

$.50 Ticket: $108

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 11,5,8

Race 6: 1,7,2

Race 7: 11,3,9,6

Race 8: 5,10

$.50 Ticket: $36

Pick 6:

Race 6: 1

Race 7: 11,3,9,6

Race 8: 5,10

Race 9: 13,8,9,1

Race 10: 11,8,2,9

Race 11: 8,6

$1.00 Ticket: $51.20

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 11,3,9,6

Race 8: 5,10

Race 9: 13,8,1,9

Race 10: 11,8,2,9

Race 11: 8,6

$.50 Ticket: $128

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 5,10

Race 9: 13,8,1,9

Race 10: 11,8,2,9

Race 11: 8,6,1,5

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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