November 17th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,281/21,968 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,117/21,968. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues will post Picks/Plays when able…

*Late Pick 5 for us last Saturday at Churchill Downs…$5,235.45 on a $96 ticket…

*Sunday’s Full Card Aqueduct Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#2 Balenciaga Betty 3-1 26 1st $7.60
#4 Karen’s Honor 9-2 25
#1 Find Your Joy 6-1 24 2nd $4.70
#8 Kaymus 5-1 24

Race 2:

#2 She’s a Tempest 6-5 32 3rd $2.20
#3 Reliable Lady 9-2 30 2nd $4.30
#1 Sarir 6-1 29 scratched
#7 Kid’s Last Laugh 7-2 28 1st $6.90 Tri $70

Race 3:

#2 Giant’s Fire 2-1 27 1st $4.00
#6 Rock Star Boy 5-2 26 scratched
#3 Conniving 4-1 25 2nd $3.10
#4 Muazarah 20-1 24

Race 4:

#6 Majulu 4-1 16
#4 Kaaterskill 8-1 15 1st $8.90
#8 Good Mission 9-2 15 4th
#2 Freud’s Fancy 12-1 14

Race 5:

#6 Swiftsure 5-2 34 1st $8.30
#7 Be Like Clint 8-1 33
#2 Call Me Harry 9-2 32 2nd $4.80
#5 Magical Ways 6-1 31 3rd $3.10

Race 6:

#1 With the Angels 3-5 32 1st $2.70 Dbl $10
#7 Stone Smuggler 5-1 29 3rd $4.10
#5 Bellacose 8-1 28
#3 Nina Kay 20-1 27 2nd $9.60

Race 7:

#10 Starts Now 6-1 29 1st $35.20 Dbl $39.20
#11 Bobby M’s Girl 7-2 AE 29 4th Pk 3 $140.50
#8 Red Burgundy 5-2 28 2nd $2.80
#5 Tongue Twister 7-2 27
#9 Boxed Wine 8-1 27

Race 8:

#9 Laurelin (IRE) 3-1 31 1st $10.80 Dbl $188.50
#5 She’s All Charm 6-1 30 Pk 3 $270
#4 Isle of Capri 5-2 29
#3 She’s Our Tiz 10-1 29 scratched

Race 9:

#3 Joker On Fire 5-2 16
#2 Chasing Colton 6-1 15
#8 Calling Card 2-1 14 1st $7.30
#7 Iron Max 7-2 13 4th

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 2,4,1,8 2

Race 2: 2,3,1 *1 scratched using 2,3,7 7

Race 3: 2,6 *6 scratched using 2,3 2

Race 4: 6,4,8 4

Race 5: 6,7,2 6

$.50 Ticket: $108 $598.25

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 2,3,1,7 7

Race 3: 2,6 *6 scratched using 2,3 2

Race 4: 6,4,8,2 4

Race 5: 6,7,2,5 6

$.50 Ticket: $64 $133

Pick 4 (3-6):

Race 3: 2,6 *6 scratched using 2,3 2

Race 4: 6,4,8,2 4

Race 5: 6,7,2,5 6

Race 6: 1,7,5,3 1

$.50 Ticket: $64 $43.25

Pick 6:

Race 4: 6,4,8 4

Race 5: 6,7,2 6

Race 6: 1 1

Race 7: 10,11,8 10

Race 8: 9 9

Race 9: 3,2,8 8

$1.00 Ticket: $81 $4,302.00

Late Pick 5:

Race 5: 6,7,2,5 6

Race 6: 1,7 1

Race 7: 10,11,8 10

Race 8: 9,5,4 9

Race 9: 3,2,8,7 8

$.50 Ticket: $144 $841.75

Late Pick 4:

Race 6: 1,7 1

Race 7: 10,11,8,5 10

Race 8: 9,5,4,3 9

Race 9: 3,2,8,7 8

$.50 Ticket: $64 $203.50

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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