September 7th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 13,996/21,489 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,899/21,489. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…

*Saturday’s Full Card Kentucky Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Kentucky Downs Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#9 Miss Lonelle 7-2 19 1st $8.92
#10 Don’t Call Me Babe 9-2 18
#6 Emmy Blue 20-1 17 2nd $12.56
#1 Lovely Emma 4-1 17 4th

Race 2:

#9 Luz Divina 3-1 18
#12 Scarborough Fair 4-1 18
#4 Novara 7-2 17 3rd $3.08
#6 Diferencia 6-1 17

Race 3:

#6 Dripping Gold 9-2 33 1st $9.38
#3 Public Sector (GB) 4-1 32 scratched
#9 Dynadrive 7-2 32
#10 Ocean Atlantique 5-1 31

Race 4:

#8 Tkac 12-1 20
#9 Courageous Clay 3-1 19 2nd $2.84
#4 Skater 6-1 18
#1 Captain Junuh 4-1 18

Race 5:

#2 Hola Gata 10-1 30 4th
#7 Spartan Queen 4-1 29 2nd $4.38
#10 Special Wan (IRE) 3-2 28 1st $4.60
#6 Quietly 12-1 28 scratched

Race 6:

#2 Chop Chop 5-2 37
#4 Greenfinch 3-1 36 4th
#7 Neecie Marie 4-1 35 1st $10.02
#6 Vergara 7-2 34 2nd $5.58

Race 7:

#8 Buttercream Babe 9-2 33
#13 Gavea (GER) 6-1 AE 32
#9 Pounce 7-2 32
#3 Time to Dazzle 6-1 31 4th
#4 Pipsy (IRE) 6-1 30

Race 8:

#8 Talk of the Nation 4-1 39
#10 Ancient Rome 5-2 38
#3 Irish Aces 12-1 37
#7 Funtastc Again 5-1 37

Race 9:

#8 Please Advise 8-1 33
#10 Howard Wolowitz 9-2 32
#6 Apollo Ten 6-1 31
#7 Joe Shiesty 8-1 31

Race 10:

#7 Tawny Port 8-1 37
#4 Get Smokin 12-1 36
#2 Integration 8-5 36
#3 Cathkin Peak (IRE) 15-1 35

Race 11:

#7 Grooms All Bizness 15-1 39
#4 Cogburn 6-5 38
#3 One Timer 8-1 37
#8 Khaadem (IRE) 7-2 36

Race 12:

#12 Thornbury 6-1 19
#7 Thabaat 8-1 18
#3 Secured Lender 6-1 18
#1 Firefight 4-1 17

Kentucky Downs Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 9,10,6,1

Race 2: 9,12,4

Race 3: 6,3,9 *3 scratched using 6,9,10

Race 4: 8,9,4

Race 5: 2,7,10

$.50 Ticket: $162

Early Pick 4:

Race 3: 6,3,9,10 *3 scratched using 6,9,10,8

Race 4: 8,9,4,1

Race 5: 2,7,10,6 *6 scratched using 2,7,10,1

Race 6: 2,4,7

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 5 (6-10):

Race 6: 2,4,7,6

Race 7: 8,13,9

Race 8: 8,10

Race 9: 8,10,6,7

Race 10: 7,4,2

$.50 Ticket: $144

Pick 4 (7-10):

Race 7: 8,13,9,3

Race 8: 8,10,3,7

Race 9: 8,10,6

Race 10: 7,4,2

$.50 Ticket: $72

Late Pick 5:

Race 8: 8,10,3,7

Race 9: 8,10,6,7

Race 10: 7,4,2

Race 11: 7,4,3

Race 12: 12,7,3

$.50 Ticket: $216

Late Pick 4:

Race 9: 8,10,6,7

Race 10: 7,4,2,3

Race 11: 7,4,3,8

Race 12: 12,7,3

$.50 Ticket: $96

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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