April 16th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site five years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 67% of the time 10,653/16,259, and top choice first or second 44% of the time 7,240/16,259. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Prayers for the people of Ukraine…

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Keeneland Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#3 Digitize 3-1 19 2nd $4.70
#5 Jester’s Song 9-5 18 4th
#2 Higher Quality 8-5 17 1st $6.10
#1 Proven Hope 3-1 17 3rd $2.60

Race 2:

#7 Street Culture 7-5 14 1st $3.20
#2 Alarming Mission 5-1 13 4th
#4 Barone Marchis 9-5 11 2nd $3.10
#3 Bell Boy 10-1 10

Race 3:

#9 Straw Into Gold 7-2 29 2nd $4.10
#6 Microsecond 2-1 28 3rd $3.60
#2 Hush of a Storm 5-2 27 4th
#8 Danzigwiththestars 4-1 26

Race 4:

#5 Flower Point 6-1 33 3rd
#6 Technical Analysis 4-5 32 2nd $2.10
#2 Giacosa 10-1 31 scratched
#3 Plum Ali 7-2 30 1st $9.40

Race 5:

#8 Martinez 1-1 16 3rd $2.10
#5 Act Accordingly 4-1 13 scratched
#2 Marshal Dillon 8-1 12
#3 Yah Huh 9-2 11 1st $11.00

Race 6:

#5 High Opinion 2-1 34 4th
#7 Messidor (IRE) 5-2 32
#1 Minaun (IRE) 9-5 31 3rd $3.00
#3 Princess Fawzia 6-1 30

Race 7:

#8 Flowing River 9-2 16
#5 Double Maker 10-1 15 scratched
#7 Eminency 5-2 15 2nd $2.80
#1 Aggregation 9-2 14 1st $6.80

Race 8:

#10 Hilliard 2-1 32 2nd $3.00
#9 Lord of War 4-1 31
#4 Brazillionaire 6-1 30 3rd $3.20
#8 High Tide 7-2 29 1st $7.80

Race 9:

#5 Bella Principessa 5-1 28 scratched
#8 Lady of Thoroton 12-1 27
#2 Missing Link 8-1 27 3rd $3.10
#3 Theodora Grace 4-1 26 1st $11.20

Race 10:

#2 Saint Selby 3-1 29 scratched
#9 River Dog 9-2 28 1st $7.60
#3 Brew Pub 15-1 27
#8 Bustin Timberlake 7-2 26 2nd $2.80

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 3,5,2,1 2

Race 2: 7,2,4 7

Race 3: 9,6,2 x

Race 4: 5,6,2 x

Race 5: 8,5 x

$.50 Ticket: $108

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 7,2,4 7

Race 3: 9,6,2 x

Race 4: 5,6,2 x

Race 5: 8,5 x

$.50 Ticket: $27

Pick 6:

Race 5: 8 x

Race 6: 5,7,1 x

Race 7: 8,5,7 x

Race 8: 10,9 x

Race 9: 5,8,2 *5 scratched using 8,2,3 3

Race 10: 2,9 *2 scratched using 9,3 9

$1.00 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 5,7,1,3 x

Race 7: 8,5,7,1 1

Race 8: 10,9,4 x

Race 9: 5,8,2,3 3

Race 10: 2,9 *2 scratched using 9,3 9

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 8,5,7,1 1

Race 8: 10,9,4,8 8

Race 9: 5,8,2 *5 scratched using 8,2,3 3

Race 10: 2,9,3,8 9

$.50 Ticket: $96 $226.50

Keeneland Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#6 Lizy D 8-1 26
#3 Yes to Mischief 5-2 25 2nd $4.00
#1 H. T. Xena 4-1 25 1st $11.20
#7 Moonshine Dreamer 5-1 24

Race 2:

#12 Growth Capital 3-1 19 2nd $3.20
#8 Chasing the Crown 7-2 18 3rd $3.20
#3 Airspeed Velocity 8-1 18
#2 Double Clutch 6-1 17 1st $9.80

Race 3:

#9 Short Summer Dress 5-2 30 1st $3.60
#1 Sterling Miss 2-1 29 scratched
#7 Remain Anonymous 8-1 28 2nd $3.60 Ex $12.60
#4 Habobanero 10-1 27 4th

Race 4:

#8 Under Oath 3-1 19 1st $4.40
#3 Artorius 5-2 18 2nd $3.80 Ex $11.80
#10 True Jedi 7-2 17 4th
#2 Rikio 12-1 17

Race 5:

#4 Credit Event 7-2 29
#7 Merci 6-1 28 4th
#6 Limited Liability 3-1 27 1st $10.00
#2 Freedom’s Way 6-1 27 2nd $6.80

Race 6:

#1 Meister 5-2 30 4th
#2 Rational Choice 2-1 29 1st $4.60
#7 Martini Blu 12-1 28
#6 Wayakin 5-2 27

Race 7:

#6 Injunction 2-1 32 3rd $3.00
#3 Therideofalifetime 10-1 31
#8 Here Mi Song 5-1 30 2nd $8.20
#4 Candy Tycoon 5-1 30 4th

Race 8:

#5 Change of Control 4-1 35 4th
#3 Campanelle (IRE) 5-2 34 1st $5.80
#2 Star Devine (IRE) 30-1 33 2nd $14.80
#4 Risky Reward 30-1 33

Race 9:

#2 In Due Time 3-1 34 *Best Bet 3rd $2.80
#11 Call Me Midnight 6-1 32
#9 Tawny Port 5-2 31 1st $12.20
#3 We All See It 15-1 31

Race 10:

#3 Shantisara (IRE) 6-5 38 2nd $2.40
#2 Waliyak (FR) 6-1 35
#4 Regal Glory 7-5 34 1st $4.00
#6 Lady Speightspeare 8-1 32 3rd $2.60

Race 11:

#4 Highly Motivated 8-5 36
#8 Ducale 5-1 34
#5 Soup and Sandwich 8-1 33 3rd $5.80
#2 Escape Route 3-1 32 2nd $6.40

Keeneland Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 6,3,1,7 1

Race 2: 12,8,3,2 2

Race 3: 9,1 *1 scratched using 9,7 9

Race 4: 8,3,10 873.75

Race 5: 4,7,6 6

$.50 Ticket: $144 $426.70

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 12,8,3,2 2

Race 3: 9,1 *1 scratched using 9,7 9

Race 4: 8,3,10,2 8

Race 5: 4,7,6,2 6

$.50 Ticket: $64 $73.75

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 8,3,10 8

Race 5: 4,7,6,2 6

Race 6: 1,2 2

Race 7: 6,3,8,4 x

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 6:

Race 6: 1,2 2

Race 7: 6,3,8,4 x

Race 8: 5,3,2,4 3

Race 9: 2 x

Race 10: 3 x

Race 11: 4,8,5,2 x

$1.00 Ticket: $128

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 6,3,8,4 x

Race 8: 5,3,2,4 3

Race 9: 2,11 x

Race 10: 3,2,4 4

Race 11: 4,8,5 x

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 5,3,2,4 3

Race 9: 2,11,9 9

Race 10: 3,2,4 4

Race 11: 4,8,5,2 x

$.50 Ticket: $72

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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