August 17th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 13,907/21,352 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,832/21,352. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…

*Saturday’s Full Card Saratoga Picks/Plays Below…

Saratoga Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#1 Sansone 7-5 20
#8 Tiz Freedom 6-1 19
#1a Moment’s Notice 7-5 19 2nd $3.10
#6 Jonathan’s Way 4-1 18 1st $6.40

Race 2:

#5 Concord Green 8-1 20 1st $28.40
#7 Royal Pride (GB) 8-1 19 scratched
#1 Asbury Park (GB) 5-1 18
#4 Dragoneer 6-1 18 3rd $6.80

Dirt Selections

#1a Complex Agenda 5-1 AE
#3 Policy Change 6-1
#4 Dragoneer 6-1
#9 Valuation Metric 5-2
#11 Johny’s Rendezvous 5-1 AE
#10 Sam’s Rocket 10-1

Race 3:

#4 Nic’s Style 9-5 32 1st $5.30 Dbl $97
#2 Bandita 6-5 31
#7 Stop Giggling 8-1 29 4th
#1 Benedetta 10-1 28 3rd $4.30

Race 4:

#10 Peak Earnings (GB) 4-1 28
#12 Boss of All 9-2 AE 28 1st $14.60
#3 River Tay (IRE) 8-1 27 4th
#5 Hue 3-1 27 2nd $4.20
#2 Valentine Gift 15-1 26

Dirt Selections

#5 Hue 3-1
#2 Valentine Gift 15-1
#14 Bella Voce 4-1
#16 Find Your Joy 12-1
#8 Quiescent 8-1
#4 Miss Bourbon 20-1

Race 5:

#7 Macaw 5-2 16
#10 Hours in a Day 20-1 15 2nd $22.80
#9 Ramesses 5-1 14 3rd $3.40
#1 Crusading 10-1 13 1st $21.40

Race 6:

#6 Bettrluckythangood 9-2 32 3rd $3.80
#4 Call Me Harry 3-1 31 1st $9.80
#2 Locke and Key 6-1 30 2nd $5.10 Tri $377
#3 Laurel Valley 6-1 30

Dirt Selections

#11 Neural Network 6-1
#2 Locke and Key 6-1
#10 Mighty Atlas 5-2
#12 Shadow Dragon 2-1
#14 Horse Be With You 12-1
#8 Agent Creed 5-1

Race 7:

#4 Freedom Trail 7-2 34
#5 Catch a Wave 9-2 33 scratched
#3 Lincoln Hawk (IRE) 15-1 32
#7 Dripping Gold 6-1 31

Dirt Selections

#14 Costa Terra 5-2
#13 Dai Vernon 2-1
#1 Duke of Gloucester 8-1
#1a St Andrews 8-1
#11 Red Run 10-1

Race 8:

#10 Timeout 5-2 34 2nd $3.10
#6 Rocketeer 9-2 33 3rd $2.40
#9 Donegal Surges 3-1 32 scratched
#2 Digital Ops 12-1 32 4th

Race 9:

#7 She Feels Pretty 2-1 35 2nd $2.50
#2 Grayosh 8-1 34 1st $17.60 Ex $48.40
#5 Spaliday 12-1 33 4th
#6 Les Reys (FR) 10-1 32 scratched

Dirt Selections

#13 Manama Gold 5-2
#12 Lemon Muffin 5-1
#14 Camera 6-1
#8 Ori 50-1

Race 10:

#6 Miss Justify 6-1 34 4th
#7 Candied 7-5 33 2nd $3.50
#8 Neon Icon 15-1 32
#3 Power Squeeze 9-2 31 1st $14.80

Race 11:

#3 Yo Daddy 3-1 32 1st $4.90
#10 Pursuit of Power 8-1 31 4th
#7 Unlimitedpotential 5-2 30
#5 Wind Ninety Nine 10-1 29 scratched

Race 12:

#5 Beautiful Thief 8-5 17 *Best Bet 1st $6.50 Dbl $17.80
#6 Naughty Destiny 6-1 15 3rd $4.00
#11 Long Legged Queen 8-1 14 AE 2nd $6.00 Tri $163
#4 Duchessofnormandy 20-1 14
#3 Heart of the Night 2-1 13

Dirt Selections

#5 Beautiful Thief 8-5
#11 Long Legged Queen 8-1 AE
#12 Good Mission 8-1 AE
#1 Lucy Playa 15-1
#2 My Executive Sweet 30-1

Saratoga Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 1/1a

Race 2: 5,7,1,4 Dirt: 1a,3,4,9 *7 scratched using 5,1,4,6

Race 3: 4,2

Race 4: 10,12,3,5 Dirt: 5,2,14,16

Race 5: 7,10,9,1

$.50 Ticket: $64

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 5,7,1,4 Dirt: 1a,3,4,9 *7 scratched using 5,1,4,6 5

Race 3: 4,2 4

Race 4: 10,12,3,5 Dirt: 5,2,14,16 12

Race 5: 7,10,9,1 1

$.50 Ticket: $64 $1,141.25

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 10,12,3,5 Dirt: 5,2,14,16

Race 5: 7,10,9,1

Race 6: 6,4,2,3 Dirt: 11,2,10,12

Race 7: 4,5 Dirt: 14,13 *5 scratched using 4,3

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5: 7,10,9,1

Race 6: 6,4,2 Dirt: 11,2,10

Race 7: 4,5,3,7 Dirt: 14,13,1/1a *5 scratched using 4,3,7,8

Race 8: 10,6,9 *9 scratched using 10,6,2

Race 9: 7,2,5

$.50 Ticket: $216

Pick 4 (6-9):

Race 6: 6,4,2,3 Dirt: 11,2,10,12

Race 7: 4,5 Dirt: 14,13 *5 scratched using 4,3

Race 8: 10,6,9 *9 scratched using 10,6,2

Race 9: 7,2,5,6 Dirt: 13,12,14,8 *6 scratched using 7,2,5,11

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 6:

Race 7: 4,5 Dirt: 14,13 *5 scratched using 4,3

Race 8: 10,6,9 *9 scratched using 10,6,2

Race 9: 7 Dirt: 13

Race 10: 6,7

Race 11: 3,10,7

Race 12: 5

$1.00 Ticket: $36

Late Pick 5:

Race 8: 10,6,9,2 *9 scratched using 10,6,2,7

Race 9: 7,2,5,6 Dirt: 13,12,14,8 *6 scratched using 7,2,5,11

Race 10: 6,7

Race 11: 3,10,7

Race 12: 5,6 Dirt: 5,11

$.50 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 9: 7,2,5,6 Dirt: 13,12,14,8 *6 scratched using 7,2,5,11

Race 10: 6,7

Race 11: 3,10,7,5 *5 scratched using 3,10,7,8

Race 12: 5,6,11,4 Dirt: 5,11,12,1

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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