August 1st, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 13,846/21,253 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,785/21,253. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…

*Thursday’s Full Card Saratoga Picks/Plays Below…

Saratoga Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#1 Writer’s Regret 8-5 28 4th
#4 Critical Threat 3-1 27 3rd
#3 Chateau 5-2 27 1st $8.90
#1a Bronx Bomber 8-5 26 2nd $2.50

Race 2:

#3 Beer Run 2-1 19
#8 Proton Spirit 10-1 18
#7 Letter Perfect 3-1 17
#4 Summer in Erin 9-2 17

Dirt Selections

#7 Letter Perfect 3-1
#5 Mums Poem 12-1
#6 Speed Figures 8-1 2nd $5.90
#9 Frostelle 5-2 3rd $2.80

Race 3:

#1 Be Your Best (IRE) 5-2 34
#5 Aspen Grove (IRE) 1-1 34
#4 Avenue Niel (IRE) 6-1 32
#3 Peak Popularity 8-1 31

Dirt Selections

#10 Movie Moxy 7-5
#9 Toned Up 6-1 2nd
#8 Ichiban 5-2 3rd
#7 Dreaming of Mo 10-1

Race 4:

#8 Caldo Candy 3-1 32
#7 Key Point 5-2 32 1st $11.20
#3 Daufuskie Island 8-1 31 3rd $3.90
#4 Jak N Burny 3-1 30

Race 5:

#4 Ariana Rye 2-1 15 1st $5.40
#5 Dancing Liana 3-1 14
#9 Mary Union Ave 9-2 13
#7 Harmonyville 20-1 12

Race 6:

#7 Orie 6-1 17
#3 McDiesel 9-2 16
#4 Richard Ave 4-1 16
#8 Iron Max 7-2 15

Dirt Selections

#3 McDiesel 9-2 1st $10.00
#5 Rockville 8-1
#12 Real Savvy 5-2
#1a Revivalism 8-1
#2 Caddiemaster 10-1

Race 7:

#8 Rocco Strong 8-1 30
#3 On a Spree 2-1 29
#6 St Andrews 5-1 28
#4 Mystic Night 5-1 28

Race 8:

#1 Cicciobello 8-1 31
#9 Cut the Cord 4-1 30
#2 Shadow Dragon 3-1 29
#7 Barese 8-1 28

Race 9:

#3 Chop Chop 5-2 38
#5 Eternal Hope (IRE) 3-1 37
#2 Royalty Interest 10-1 36
#7 Mc Kulick (GB) 2-1 35

Race 10:

#7 Pamplona Red 8-1 16
#2 Starlight Dancer 8-1 15
#1 Miss Lao 9-2 15
#4 Dance On Air 6-1 14

Dirt Selections

#15 Welcome Back Babe 5-2
#10 Hayes Bay 10-1
#14 Malibu’s Dynamite 8-1
#4 Dance On Air 6-1

Saratoga Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 1/1a,4,3

Race 2: 3,8,7,4 Dirt: 7,5,6,9

Race 3: 1,5 Dirt: 10,9 *10 scratched using 9,8

Race 4: 8,7,3

Race 5: 4,5

$.50 Ticket: $72

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,8,7,4 Dirt: 7,5,6,9

Race 3: 1,5,4,3 Dirt: 10,9,8,7

Race 4: 8,7,3,4

Race 5: 4,5

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 8,7,3,4

Race 5: 4,5

Race 6: 7,3,4,8 Dirt: 3,5,12,1a

Race 7: 8,3,6,4

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 5: 4,5

Race 6: 7,3,4 Dirt: 3,5,12 *5 scratched using 3,12,1a

Race 7: 8,3

Race 8: 1,9,2

Race 9: 3

Race 10: 7,2,1 Dirt: 15,10,14

$1.00 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 7,3,4,8 Dirt: 3,5,12,1a

Race 7: 8,3,6,4

Race 8: 1,9,2,7

Race 9: 3,5

Race 10: 7,2,1 Dirt: 15,10,14

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 8,3,6,4

Race 8: 1,9,2,7

Race 9: 3,5

Race 10: 7,2,1,4 Dirt: 15,10,14,4

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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