A Winning Day at the Races!

January 11th, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,516/22,323 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,295/22,323. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues will post Picks/Plays when able…

*Early Pick 4 for us last Saturday at Oaklawn$776.90 on a $96 ticket…

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct Tampa Bay Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#3 Augustine Red 3-1              29 3rd $2.20
#2 Narciso Dali 3-1                   28 scratched
#6 Iridescent 2-1                       28 1st $4.60
#4 Vinsanity 9-2                        27 2nd $3.00

Race 2:

#1 Tizzy in the Sky 4-5            33 1st $3.30
#5 Julia Shining 2-1                  32 2nd $2.20
#3 Evidencias (BRZ) 6-1           31 4th
#4 Comparative 9-2                   31 3rd

Race 3:

#7 York Tavern 6-5                   28 4th
#5 Conniving 4-1                      27
#2 Majestic Arc 20-1                26 2nd $20.00
#6 Always a Warrior 7-2          25

Race 4:

#2 D Day Sky 7-5                       27 3rd $2.20
#1 Big Rich 5-1                          26
#7 Golden Purchase 8-1           25 2nd 9.70
#5 Secret Treasure 6-1              25 4th

Race 5:

#4 One Nine Hundred 2-1        18 3rd $2.40
#2 Orgonite 8-1                          17
#1 Grand Commander 8-1        16 2nd $5.00
#6 Social Hour 9-2                      15 4th

Race 6:

#1 Frizzante 8-5                         31 *Best Bet 2nd $2.70
#5 Melt With You 6-1                30
#6 Waitlist 7-2                            29
#2 Scat Tu Tap 8-1                     28 4th

Race 7:

#2 Bells Beach 5-2                    32 4th
#4 Points Is Points 6-1             31 3rd $6.70
#1a Save Us Melania 8-1          30 scratched
#5 Prides Crossing 7-2              30

Race 8:

#8 Kid Billy 6-1                           29
#2 He Has It All 12-1                 28
#4 Boss Three O Two 9-2          28
#3 On the Hill 5-1                       27

Race 9:

#6 Prince Valiant 4-1                 17
#8 Late Night Boss 6-1              16
#10 Vekinda 2-1                          16
#7 E Z Bourbon 20-1                  15

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  3,2,6 *2 scratched using 3,6,4

Race 2:  1,5

Race 3:  7,5

Race 4:  2,1,7,5

Race 5:  4,2 *2 scratched using 4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  1,5,3

Race 3:  7,5,2,6

Race 4:  2,1,7

Race 5:  4,2,1 *2 scratched using 4,1,6

$.50 Ticket:  $54

Pick 4 (3-6):

Race 3:  7,5,2,6

Race 4:  2,1,7,5

Race 5:  4,2,1,6

Race 6:  1,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 4:  2

Race 5:  4,2,1,6

Race 6:  1

Race 7:  2,4,1a/1 *1a scratched using 2,4,5

Race 8:  8,2,4,3

Race 9:  6,8,10

$1.00 Ticket:  $144

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  4,2,1 *2 scratched using 4,1,6

Race 6:  1,5

Race 7:  2,4,1a/1,5

Race 8:  8,2,4,3

Race 9:  6,8,10

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  1,5

Race 7:  2,4,1a/1,5

Race 8:  8,2,4,3

Race 9:  6,8,10,7

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Tampa Bay Selections 

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#3 Paralegal 5-2                         24 1st $4.20
#5 Seven Anniversary 4-1        23 3rd $2.80
#6 Sa Sa Sa 10-1                         22 scratched
#4 Milchin 10-1                          22

Race 2:

#7 Sir Saffer 4-1                         28 2nd $6.20
#1 Lure Him In 6-5                    28 1st $4.80 Ex $29.80
#3 Fortysixcounts 6-1               27 3rd $2.80 Tri $87.20
#5 Slim Slow Slider 15-1           26

Race 3:

#7 Curlaine 7-2                          19 2nd $6.20
#8 Cease Fire 3-1                       18 4th
#2 Costa Amalfitana 8-1           17 1st $12.20
#4 Going Streakin 15-1             16 3rd $9.60 Spr $5,685.60

Race 4:

#6 Owen Almighty 4-5            33
#4 Rookie Card 3-1                   32 4th
#5 Naughty Rascal 5-2             31 1st $8.20
#3 Cockeyed 20-1                      29 3rd $25.40

Race 5:

#6 Mrs Worldwide 5-2             29 4th
#4 Vuela Paloma 8-1                28
#2 Dancing Magic 3-1              27 1st $9.00
#3 Lynn’s Milky Way 6-1         27 2nd $7.80

Race 6:

#10 Just One More 9-2             17
#13 Elite Status 9-2 AE            17
#2 Back to Gridlock 3-1            16 4th
#9 Enchant 7-2                           16 2nd $4.20
#5 Runaway Lights 6-1             15

Race 7:

#5 Literate 6-1                          30
#4 American Retro 10-1          29 4th
#1 Peignoir 2-1                          28 2nd $4.00
#8 Little Jamie 9-2                    28 1st $11.60

Race 8:

#9 Singalong Kayla 9-2            31
#7 Mama Bella 6-1                    30
#3 Shade of Pale 7-5                 29
#4 Dreaming of Abba 6-1         28

Race 9:

#4 Nutella Fella 4-5                  34
#2 Go Otto Go 8-1                     30
#9 Timeless Bounty 30-1         29
#7 Chrome Ghost 6-1               28

Race 10:

#5 A Western Yarn 3-1             28
#4 Denying 8-1                          27
#11 Fatima’s Blessing 8-1 AE 27
#3 Eddie the Great 6-1             26
#6 You Talkin to Me 6-1           25

Tampa Bay Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  3,5,6,4

Race 2:  7,1,3

Race 3:  7,8

Race 4:  6,4,5

Race 5:  6,4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $108

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  7,1,3,5

Race 3:  7,8

Race 4:  6,4,5

Race 5:  6,4,2,3

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4:  6,4

Race 5:  6,4,2,3

Race 6:  10,13,2,9

Race 7:  5,4,1,8

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 5:  6,4,2,3

Race 6:  10,13,2,9

Race 7:  5,4,1

Race 8:  9,7,3

Race 9:  4

Race 10: 5,4,11,3

$.20 Ticket:  $57.60

Late Pick 5:

Race 6:  10,13,2,9

Race 7:  5,4,1,8

Race 8:  9,7,3

Race 9:  4,2 *2 scratched using 4,9

Race 10: 5,4,11,3

$.50 Ticket:  $192

Late Pick 4:

Race 7:  5,4,1,8

Race 8:  9,7,3,4

Race 9:  4,2 *2 scratched using 4,9

Race 10: 5,4,11,3

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 

 

 

 


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