May 2nd, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

• May 1, 2025
• Free Picks & Plays
• No comments

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,950/23,009 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,636/23,009. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Friday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#5 Beira 7-5                               27 1st $4.40
#4 Yo Leven 9-5                        26 2nd $3.40 Ex $14.00
#1 Rodeo Star 10-1                   25
#6 Welcome Back Babe 4-1    24 4th

Race 2:

#3 Peek 6-5                                29 2nd $2.70
#2 Sundaeswithsandy 7-2       28 3rd $2.40
#4 Castle Island 4-1                  27 1st $13.20 Tri $45.40
#1a Celestial Moon 9-2            26 4th Spr $99

Race 3:

#4 Beach Bomb (SAF) 2-1       35 2nd $2.80
#2 Silvology 3-1                        34 3rd $3.10
#5 La Mehana (FR) 5-2            33 4th
#1 Bellezza (IRE) 3-1                32 1st $22.40 Spr $279

Race 4:

#5 Mozambique 7-2                  17 scratched 
#2 Counter Move 7-5                16 3rd $2.10
#6 Vitalize 3-1                            15 4th
#1 Palace Boss 5-1                     14 1st $9.90

Race 5:

#6 Java Buzz 6-1                        28
#7 Musical Maestro 8-1            27
#4 I See You Lookin 15-1          27 3rd $5.90
#2 Cool Hand Rich 8-1              26

Race 6:

#7 Equus 6-1                               28
#2 Pistol Liz Ablazen 2-1          28
#1 Willow Bend 3-1                    27
#3 Our Liberty Belle 8-1            26

Race 7:

#3 Short Shift 4-1                       27
#4 Echo in Eternity 8-1             26
#5 Snappin Buttons 7-2             26
#1 Jackson’s Dixie 5-2                25

Race 8:

#3 Summer Whirl 5-1                29
#10 Spool 6-1                              28
#4 Tongue Twister 8-1               27
#2 Firsttimeinforever 5-2          26

Race 9:

#10 Consumer Sentiment 4-1  18
#8 Mendee 5-1                             17
#7 More for Sure (IRE) 9-2        16
#4 Sota Summers 3-1                 16

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  5,4

Race 2:  3,2,4,1a/1

Race 3:  4,2,5

Race 4:  5,2 *5 scratched using 2,6

Race 5:  6,7,4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  3,2,4,1a/1

Race 3:  4,2,5,1

Race 4:  5,2 *5 scratched using 2,6

Race 5:  6,7,4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 4 (3-6):

Race 3:  4,2,5,1

Race 4:  5,2,6,1

Race 5:  6,7,4,2

Race 6:  7,2,1

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 6:

Race 4:  5,2 *5 scratched using 2,6

Race 5:  6,7,4,2

Race 6:  7,2

Race 7:  3,4,5

Race 8:  3,10

Race 9:  10

$1.00 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  6,7,4,2

Race 6:  7,2,1

Race 7:  3,4,5,1

Race 8:  3,10,4,2

Race 9:  10

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  7,2,1

Race 7:  3,4,5,1

Race 8:  3,10,4,2

Race 9:  10,8,7,4

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Churchill Selections 

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#4 Chasten 2-1                          32 2nd $3.04
#3 Shred the Gnar 5-2              31 1st $3.76
#1 Anonima 3-1                        30 scratched 
#5 Sierra November 8-1           29 scratched 

Race 2:

#9 Salted 3-1                              19
#3 Saucier 6-1                            18 4th
#1 Joyous Song 12-1                 18
#4 Defiant Lass 4-1                   17 1st $11.80

Race 3:

#11 Vivaldi 5-1                          19 2nd $4.64
#10 Some Performance 9-2     19 4th
#3 Profound 4-1                         18
#2 Tom Collins 8-1                    18

Dirt Selections

#1 Elko County 6-1
#14 Its Bourbon Thirty 8-1
#15 Ambition 10-1
#3 Profound 4-1
#4 Spill the Wine 20-1

Race 4:

#7 Beauty Reigns 9-2               31 1st $14.86
#9 Mindy’s Union 8-1              30
#3 Stable Currency 7-2            29 3rd $2.34
#10 Foie Gras 6-1                      29 2nd $5.20

Race 5:

#8 Will Then 9-2                      34
#5 Nitrogen 8-5                        33 1st $3.94
#2 Vixen 3-1                              32 3rd $2.42
#4 Aterradora (IRE) 15-1         31 4th

Dirt Selections

#1 Gowells Delight 10-1
#5 Nitrogen 8-5
#6 Hideaway 15-1
#3 Admit 20-1

Race 6:

#5 Most Wanted 7-2                42 2nd $5.16
#2 Locked 2-1                            41 4th
#4 Fierceness 6-5                      40 1st $3.88
#3 Hall of Fame 4-1                  39 3rd $3.56 Spr $81.78

Race 7:

#4 Raging Sea 9-2                    39 1st $10.08
#2 Thorpedo Anna 2-5            39
#5 Randomized 6-1                  37 3rd $6.24
#1 Dorth Vader 30-1                 35 4th

Race 8:

#8 Saffron Moon 3-1                37 3rd $2.34
#7 She Feels Pretty 6-5            36 1st $3.58
#2 Gimme a Nother 7-2            35 2nd $3.30
#3 Segesta 9-2                            34 4th

Dirt Selections

#8 Saffron Moon 3-1
#3 Segesta 9-2
#1 Waves of Mischief 20-1
#4 Pin Up Betty 12-1

Race 9:

#10 Impulse Buy 7-2                 35
#12 Eclatant 5-2                        34
#6 Kimchi Cat 15-1                   33
#5 Verity 3-1                               33

Race 10:

#3 Gavea (GER) 15-1                 38
#5 Epona’s Hope 6-1                 38
#4 Ag Bullet 8-5                          37
#7 Crown Imperial 12-1            36

Dirt Selections

#5 Epona’s Hope 6-1
#8 Asternia 20-1
#6 Bling 8-1
#4 Ag Bullet 8-5

Race 11:

#2 Simply Joking (PA) 10-1      40
#7 La Cara 6-1                             39
#11 Good Cheer 6-5                   39
#6 Ballerina d’Oro 10-1             38

Race 12:

#6 Into Pleasure 9-2                   34
#2 Lat Long 8-1                           33
#7 Resilience 7-2                         33
#10 Not This Boy 4-1                  32

Race 13:

#12 Cue the Duckboats 8-1        19
#10 Chaching Chaching 7-2       18
#3 Ivory and Ebony 5-1               18
#7 La Neige 10-1                           17

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  4,3,1

Race 2:  9,3,1,4

Race 3:  11,10,3 Dirt: 1,14,15

Race 4:  7,9,3

Race 5:  8,5 Dirt: 1,5

$.50 Ticket:  $108

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  9,3,1,4

Race 3:  11,10,3,2 Dirt: 1,14,15,3

Race 4:  7,9,3,10

Race 5:  8,5,2 Dirt: 1,5,6

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3:  11,10,3 Dirt: 1,14,15

Race 4:  7,9,3

Race 5:  8,5,2 Dirt: 1,5,6

Race 6:  5,2,4

Race 7:  4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $81

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4:  7,9,3,10

Race 5:  8,5,2,4 Dirt: 1,5,6,3

Race 6:  5,2,4

Race 7:  4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $48 $89.69

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5:  8,5,2,4 Dirt: 1,5,6,3

Race 6:  5,2,4

Race 7:  4,2,5

Race 8:  8,7 Dirt: 8,3

Race 9:  10,12,6,5

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Pick 6:

Race 6:  5,2,4

Race 7:  4,2

Race 8:  8,7,2 Dirt: 8,3,1

Race 9:  10,12,6,5

Race 10: 3,5,4 Dirt: 5,8,6

Race 11:  2,7,11

$.20 Ticket:  $129.60

Pick 5 (7-11):

Race 7:  4,2,5

Race 8:  8,7,2 Dirt: 8,3,1

Race 9:  10,12,6,5

Race 10: 3,5,4,7 Dirt: 5,8,6,4

Race 11:  2,7,11

$.50 Ticket:  $216

Pick 4 (8-11):

Race 8:  8,7 Dirt: 8,3

Race 9:  10,12,6,5

Race 10: 3,5,4,7 Dirt: 5,8,6,4

Race 11:  2,7,11,6

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Late Pick 5:

Race 9:  10,12,6,5

Race 10: 3,5,4,7 Dirt: 5,8,6,4

Race 11:  2,7,11,6

Race 12:  6,2,7

Race 13:  12,10,3

$.50 Ticket:  $288

Late Pick 4:

Race 10:  3,5,4 Dirt: 5,8,6

Race 11:  2,7,11

Race 12:  6,2,7,10

Race 13:  12,10,3,7

$.50 Ticket:  $72

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.