A Winning Day at the Races!

May 3rd, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,963/23,031 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,649/23,031. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card AqueductChurchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#1 Kadabra 1-1                           19 1st $2.60
#5 Always Ready 5-2                 18 4th
#3 Nacho Problem 4-1              16 3rd $2.20
#4 Gena B 7-2                              15 2nd $4.10

Race 2:

#5 No No Joe 8-5                       28 3rd $2.20
#6 Paxsational 2-1                    27 1st $4.00
#4 Six Kings 10-1                       26
#2 Charlie’s Express 4-1           25 2nd $6.50

Race 3:

#6 Ari’s Magic 2-1                     28 scratched 
#5 Miles and Miles 5-2             27 2nd
#2 Go Irish 5-1                           26 1st $3.80
#1 Tarpaulin 9-2                        26 scratched 

Race 4:

#5 Accidental Bid 10-1             27
#2 Mr. Mendelssohn 6-1          27
#7 Gimme Gimme 3-1              26
#1 Prince of Truth 9-5              26

Race 5:

#7 Magic Beach 2-1                   14
#2 Ridolfi 4-1                              12
#3 Sittin Chilly 3-1                    11
#1a Nine N Four 9-2                  11

Race 6:

#9 Currane 6-1                           16
#5 Rad Llama 5-1                       15
#3 Mommy’s Turn 9-2              15
#8 Willful Mama 3-1                 14

Dirt Selections

#8 Willful Mama 3-1
#13 Our Preferred Pal 6-1
#14 Farm House 7-2
#1a Patience N Grace 10-1
#5 Rad Llama 5-1

Race 7:

#9 Alogon 9-2                             37
#1 Nothing Better 3-1               36
#4 Apollo Ten 6-1                      34
#3 Shards 10-1                            33

Dirt Selections

#11 Surveillance 8-5
#7 Bold Journey 15-1
#12 Unlimitedpotential 4-1

Race 8:

#2 Cees Get Degrees 7-5         30
#3 Joking Way 7-2                     28
#7 Charging Aero 5-1               28
#4 Jake Rocks 6-1                      27

Race 9:

#8 Ori 5-2                                   32
#4 Scarlet Poppy (IRE) 4-1      30
#2 Highland Light 5-1              29
#5 Anileate 30-1                        28

Dirt Selections

#13 Save Us Melania 2-1
#16 Patty Van Twinkle 7-2
#14 Bells Beach 5-2

Race 10:

#3 Deterministic 3-1                35
#4 Carson’s Run 2-1                 34
#2 Master Piece (CHI) 7-2       33
#5 Tuscan Sky 9-2                     32

Dirt Selections

#5 Tuscan Sky 9-2
#3 Deterministic 3-1
#6 Magnolia Midnight 5-1

Race 11:

#1 Bronx Bomber 2-1               26
#4 Hot Rod Rumble 6-1           25
#2 Allure of Money 7-2            24
#5 Honorary Degree 5-2          23

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  1,5,3,4

Race 2:  5,6

Race 3:  6,5

Race 4:  5,2,7,1

Race 5:  7,2,3

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  5,6

Race 3:  6,5,2,1

Race 4:  5,2,7,1

Race 5:  7,2,3,1a/1

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4:  5,2,7,1

Race 5:  7,2,3,1a/1

Race 6:  9,5,3,8 Dirt: 8,13,14,1a

Race 7:  9,1,4 Dirt: 11,7,12

Race 8:  2

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5:  7,2,3,1a/1

Race 6:  9,5,3,8 Dirt: 8,13,14,1a

Race 7:  9,1,4 Dirt: 11,7,12

Race 8:  2,3

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Pick 6:

Race 6:  9,5,3,8 Dirt: 8,13,14,1a

Race 7:  9,1 Dirt: 11,7

Race 8:  2

Race 9:  8,4,2 Dirt: 13,16,14

Race 10: 3,4 Dirt: 5,3,6

Race 11:  1,4,2,5

$1.00 Ticket:  $192

Late Pick 5:

Race 7:  9,1,4 Dirt: 11,7,12

Race 8:  2,3

Race 9:  8,4,2 Dirt: 13,16,14

Race 10: 3,4,2 Dirt: 5,3,6

Race 11:  1,4,2,5

$.50 Ticket:  $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 8:  2,3

Race 9:  8,4,2,5 Dirt: 13,16,14

Race 10: 3,4,2,5 Dirt: 5,3,6

Race 11:  1,4,2,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Churchill Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#8 Sansone 6-1                          20 3rd $3.78
#12 Chillax 5-1                          19 2nd $5.40
#11 Coffee Talk 4-1                   19
#10 Knicks Gate 15-1                18

Race 2:

#4 Home Game 6-1                   32
#5 Tapit Quick 5-1                     31 3rd $4.06
#10 Generous Lover 7-2            31 2nd $3.34
#7 Normandy Queen 9-2          30 4th

Race 3:

#2 Bracket Buster 6-1                34
#3 Valentinian 6-1                     33 4th
#11 Sorcerer’s Silver 8-1           32
#5 Goal Oriented 4-1                 32 1st $4.62

Race 4:

#10 Implementation 6-1           36 scratched
#3 Accretive 6-1                          35
#13 New King 12-1                     35
#11 Inveigled 10-1                      34 4th

Race 5:

#5 Five Towns (GB) 10-1           37 4th
#2 Movin’ On Up 5-1                  36 3rd $3.58
#4 Serene Seraph (IRE) 20-1     35
#6 Sacred Wish 3-1                     35

Dirt Selections

#6 Sacred Wish 3-1
#4 Serene Seraph (IRE) 20-1
#2 Movin’ On Up 5-1

Race 6:

#6 Gaming 3-1                              39
#5 Gate to Wire 6-1                     38
#4 Smoken Wicked 12-1             37
#1 Madaket Road 2-1                   36

Race 7:

#8 Rogue Lighting (IRE) 7-2     42
#7 Think Big 4-1                          41
#2 Ambivalent 12-1                    40
#5 Arrest Me Red 6-1                  40

Dirt Selections

#1 Coppola 10-1
#7 Think Big 4-1
#12 Mischievous Rogue 20-1
#6 Run Carson

Race 8:

#4 Giant Mischief 8-1                 43
#2 Banishing 5-1                          42
#7 Mindframe 3-1                        41
#6 Extra Anejo 12-1                     41

Race 9:

#5 Test Score 10-1                        34
#7 Zulu Kingdom (IRE) 4-1         33
#10 Iron Man Cal 9-2                   32
#2 Scipio 12-1                                32

Dirt Selections

#4 Mi Bago 10-1
#18 Discreet Dancer 20-1
#9 Giocoso 30-1
#11 Classic of Course 20-1

Race 10:

#11 Positano Sunset 12-1           44
#9 Emery 6-1                                 43
#5 Haulin Ice 15-1                        42
#2 Kopion 8-1                                41

Race 11:

#2 Gold Phoenix (IRE) 10-1        42
#7 Running Bee 5-1                      42
#8 Cameo Performance 20-1       41
#6 Taking Candy 8-1                     41

Dirt Selections

#10 Spirit of St Louis 9-2
#12 Gigante 15-1
#9 Mercante 10-1

Race 12:

#12 East Avenue 20-1                   39
#21 Baeza 12-1                               38
#8 Journalism 3-1                          38
#13 Publisher 30-1                        37

Race 13:

#9 Romanesque 5-1                       34
#7 Multiverse 12-1                         33
#14 Big Truzz 9-2                           33
#11 Patch Adams 5-2                     32

Race 14:

#14 Mainstream 7-2                      19
#5 Advanced Spirit 5-1                 18
#8 Harbe 12-1                                 18
#10 Excite 12-1                               17

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  8,12,11,10

Race 2:  4,5,10,7

Race 3:  2,3,11,5

Race 4:  10,3

Race 5:  5,2,4,6 Dirt: 6,4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $256

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  4,5,10

Race 3:  2,3,11,5

Race 4:  10,3,13,11

Race 5:  5,2,4,6 Dirt: 6,4,2

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3:  2,3,11,5

Race 4:  10,3,13,11

Race 5:  5,2,4,6 Dirt: 6,4,2

Race 6:  6,5

Race 7:  8,7,2 Dirt: 1,7,12

$.50 Ticket:  $192

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4:  10,3,13,11

Race 5:  5,2,4,6 Dirt: 6,4,2

Race 6:  6,5,4,1

Race 7:  8,7 Dirt: 1,7

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5:  5,2,4,6 Dirt: 6,4,2

Race 6:  6,5,4,1

Race 7:  8,7 Dirt: 1,7

Race 8:  4,2,7

Race 9:  5,7,10 Dirt: 4,18,9

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Pick 4 (6-9):

Race 6:  6,5,4,1

Race 7:  8,7,2,5 Dirt: 1,7,12,6

Race 8:  4,2,7

Race 9:  5,7,10,2 Dirt: 4,18,9,11

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 6:

Race 7:  8,7,2,5 Dirt: 1,7,12,6

Race 8:  4,2,7

Race 9:  5,7,10,2 Dirt: 4,18,9,11

Race 10: 11,9,5 *5 scratched using 11,9,2

Race 11:  2,7,8,6 Dirt: 10,12,9

Race 12:  12,21

$.20 Ticket:  $230.40

Pick 5 (8-12):

Race 8:  4,2,7,6

Race 9:  5,7,10 Dirt: 4,18,9,11

Race 10: 11,9,5,2 *5 scratched using 11,9,2,1

Race 11:  2,7,8,6 Dirt: 10,12,9

Race 12:  12

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 4 (9-12):

Race 9:  5,7,10,2 Dirt: 4,18,9,11

Race 10: 11,9,5,2 *5 scratched using 11,9,2,1

Race 11:  2,7,8,6 Dirt: 10,12,9

Race 12:  12,21,8

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 5:

Race 10: 11,9,5,2 *5 scratched using 11,9,2,1

Race 11:  2,7,8,6 Dirt: 10,12,9

Race 12:  12,21,8,13

Race 13:  9,7,14,11

Race 14:  14

$.50 Ticket:  $128

Late Pick 4:

Race 11:  2,7,8,6 Dirt: 10,12,9

Race 12:  12,21,8,13

Race 13:  9,7,14,11

Race 14:  14,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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