November 29th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

• November 28, 2024
• Free Picks & Plays
• No comments

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,330/22,035 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,152/22,035. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues will post Picks/Plays when able…

Happy Thanksgiving!!

*6 on top winners 11/17 at Aqueduct…$7.60…$4.00…$8.30…$2.70…$35.20…$10.80

*Early & Late Pick 5/4’s & Pick 6 for us as well 11/17 at Aqueduct…

*Pick 6 $4,302 on a $81 ticket…

*Early Pick 5 $598.25 on a $108 ticket…Late Pick 5 $841.75 on a $144 ticket…

*Early Pick 4 $133 on a $48 ticket…Late Pick 4 $203.50 on a $64 ticket…

*Early Pick 5 for us last Friday at Aqueduct…$295.25 on a $54 ticket…

*Early & Late Pick 5 for us last Sunday at Aqueduct…

*Early Pick 5 $165.25 on a $72 ticket…Late Pick 5 $348.75 on a $108 ticket…

*$40.70 on top winner for us yesterday at Churchill Downs…

 *Friday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#5 Apple Jax 2-1                           18
#4 Math Tutor 4-1                        17 4th
#1a Griffin’s Wharf 5-2                17 1st e $4.70
#6 Grey Ace 6-1                             16 2nd $9.00

Race 2:

#8 Baroness Bourbon 5-2           27 1st $4.30
#1 Duchess of Destin 3-1           26
#3 Accelerina 10-1                       25 2nd $6.30
#5 Lem Me Drink 6-1                   24 3rd $4.10

Race 3:

#5 One Vision 5-2                        15 2nd $2.10
#4 Papa Paulie P 3-1                    14 1st $6.90 Ex $12
#3 Monomoy Beach 5-1              13 3rd $3.00 Tri $46.80
#7 Whiskey Frens 2-1                  12 scratched

Race 4:

#3 Prince of Truth 6-5                 27 scratched
#4 Messi the Magician 6-1          26 4th
#1 J D Factor 3-1                           25 1st $3.90
#7 Union Express 20-1                 25 scratched

Race 5:

#4 Central Casting 3-1                 16 1st $5.20
#1 Melancia 2-1                             15 3rd $2.20
#2 Gaga’s Hansome 5-2               14 2nd $2.90
#8 Aerialist 10-1                            14

Race 6:

#2 Accidental Bid 3-1                   17 3rd $2.90
#7 True Connection 6-1               16
#3 Good as He Gets 6-1                15 4th
#6 Glint 5-1                                     15 2nd $6.50

Race 7:

#6 Runninsonofagun 4-1            35 2nd $3.40
#9 Giant Mischief 9-5                  34 1st $3.80 Ex $10.60
#8 Top Gunner 5-1                       33 3rd $4.20 Tri $45
#4 Twenty Four Mamba 20-1     32

Race 8:

#3 Lady Mine 8-5                          28
#1 Sarir 4-1                                     27 4th
#7 Killy Start 6-1                           27 2nd $4.70
#2 Patty Brown Eyes 8-1              26

Race 9:

#7 Register 10-1                           28 2nd $4.10
#10 Uncorrelated 9-2                  27
#3 Confabulation 7-2                  27 1st $4.50
#1 Frizzante 5-2                           26 scratched

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  5,4,1a/1

Race 2:  8,1,3,5

Race 3:  5,4,3,7

Race 4:  3,4,1

Race 5:  4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  8,1,3,5

Race 3:  5,4,3,7

Race 4:  3,4,1,7

Race 5:  4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 4 (3-6):

Race 3:  5,4

Race 4:  3,4,1,7

Race 5:  4,1,2,8

Race 6:  2,7,3,6

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 4:  3 *3 scratched using 4

Race 5:  4,1,2

Race 6:  2,7,3

Race 7:  6,9

Race 8:  3

Race 9:  7,10,3

$1.00 Ticket:  $54

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  4,1,2

Race 6:  2,7,3,6

Race 7:  6,9,8

Race 8:  3,1,7

Race 9:  7,10,3

$.50 Ticket:  $162

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  2,7,3,6

Race 7:  6,9,8

Race 8:  3,1,7

Race 9:  7,10,3,1

$.50 Ticket:  $72

Churchill Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#1 Paint Baller 12-1                     19
#8 Orizzonte 6-1                           18 4th
#5 Wistucky 3-1                            18 2nd $3.94
#4 Ahandfulofcandy 4-1              17 scratched

Race 2:

#6 Curlin’s Magic 10-1                28
#5 Curl Girl 2-1                             28 1st $3.46
#3 Mustang Lady 5-2                   27 4th
#4 Catching Heat 7-2                   27

Race 3:

#6 Asian Matriarch 4-1              29 2nd $6.96
#2 Just Like You 3-1                    28
#5 Miss Jeopardy 7-2                  27 1st $15.96
#7 Mo Sense 9-2                          27 4th

Race 4:

#6 Kant Beat the Rock 8-1        27 1st $10.12
#4 Appeal Denied 7-2                26 scratched
#10 Iceatude 9-2                         26 4th
#1 Metallic Man 5-1                   25

Race 5:

#2 Chapter and Verse 5-1         14 2nd $3.32
#4 Kuku 4-1                                 13 3rd $3.44
#8 Spot On Cookie 8-1              12 4th
#1 Lady Riley 9-2                        11 1st $6.62 Spr $293.80

Race 6:

#10 Native Shaman 15-1          33 2nd $4.92
#6 Idratherbeblessed 7-2          32
#4 Better Bet 3-1                        31
#3 Camp Hope 8-1                     31

Race 7:

#5 Intermittent Fast 3-1          30 1st $6.94
#4 The Big Calhouna 4-1         29
#2 Balladry 5-1                           28
#7 Progeny 5-2                           28 2nd $5.08

Race 8:

#5 Unworkable 12-1                 27 scratched
#8 Twirling Troillet 4-1           26 1st $6.78 Dbl $28.08
#1 Patch O’Brien 3-1                25 2nd $2.38 Ex $24.88
#10 Thanks Frank 6-1               25 4th

Race 9:

#6 Amber Cascade 2-1            29 scratched
#4 Sultry Lass 4-1                    28 1st $4.82 Dbl $23.42
#2 Ichiban 6-1                           27 scratched Pk 3 $164.72
#1 Starlight Love 15-1             26 4th

Race 10:

#3 Kehoe Beach 3-1                 36 1st $4.10 Dbl $11.98
#7 Minoushka (GB) 9-2           35 4th Pk 3 $97.96
#12 Poolside With Slim 6-1    34 3rd $5.30
#10 Simply in Front 15-1        33

Race 11:

#6 Hit Show 3-1                       40
#9 Cookie Creek 6-1                39
#5 Most Wanted 7-2                38
#1 Bolzy 12-1                            37

Race 12:

#6 Gunner Glacken 8-1          18
#4 Akinmusire 3-1                   17
#8 Bermuda Blitz 7-2              17
#10 Unionista 12-1                  16

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  1,8,5,4

Race 2:  6,5,3,4

Race 3:  6,2,5

Race 4:  6,4,10 *4 scratched using 6,10,1

Race 5:  2,4

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  6,5,3,4

Race 3:  6,2,5,7

Race 4:  6,4,10 *4 scratched using 6,10,1

Race 5:  2,4,8

$.50 Ticket:  $72

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4:  6,4,10,1

Race 5:  2,4,8,1

Race 6:  10,6,4

Race 7:  5,4

Race 8:  5,8,1

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Pick 4 (5-8)

Race 5:  2,4,8,1

Race 6:  10,6,4,3

Race 7:  5,4

Race 8:  5,8,1,10

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 5 (6-10):

Race 6:  10,6,4,3

Race 7:  5,4,2,7

Race 8:  5,8,1

Race 9:  6,4

Race 10: 3,7,12

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Pick 6:

Race 7:  5,4,2,7

Race 8:  5,8,1

Race 9:  6,4,2 *2 scratched using 6,4,1

Race 10: 3,7,12

Race 11:  6,9,5

Race 12:  6,4,8

$.20 Ticket:  $194.40

Late Pick 5:

Race 8:  5,8,1,10

Race 9:  6,4,2 *2 scratched using 6,4,1

Race 10: 3,7,12

Race 11:  6,9,5

Race 12:  6,4,8

$.50 Ticket:  $162

Late Pick 4:

Race 9:  6,4

Race 10: 3,7,12,10

Race 11:  6,9,5,1

Race 12:  6,4,8,10

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.