November 8th, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site nine years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 15,652/24,184 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 11,141/24,184. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Middle Pick 4 for us yesterday at Aqueduct…$322.93 on a $32 ticket…

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#7 Collect the Data 7-5 32 1st $2.72
#5 Fast and Frisky 4-1 30 4th
#1 Embraceable Gal 9-2 29 3rd $2.48
#6 Sweetest Princess 10-1 28 scratched

Race 2:

#3 Cyclonite 5-2 33 2nd $3.76
#2 Cuando 5-1 32 3rd $3.82
#8 Vacation Dance 7-2 31 1st $15.48 Tri $240.60
#1 Landing Craft 8-1 30

Race 3:

#4 Stars and Stripes 3-1 35 4th
#2 Disco Time 6-5 34 1st $4.44
#1 Tip Top Thomas 2-1 33 3rd
#6 Crudo 6-1 32 2nd $5.32

Race 4:

#8 Weigh the Risks 9-5 36 1st $4.68
#1 Nic’s Style 2-1 34 4th
#6 Scalable 5-1 33 3rd $3.90
#7 Patricia Ann 9-2 32 2nd $4.22 Spr $170.40

Race 5:

#4 Three Sixty 8-1 18
#10 Sweet Rhythm 4-1 17
#8 Belarosa 6-1 17 1st $10.62
#5 Chatelot 12-1 16 4th

Race 6:

#8 Tracking Error 5-1 30 1st $7.06
#1 Dreamlike 5-2 29 3rd $3.04
#5 Commuted 4-1 28 4th
#7 Mr. Ripple 8-1 27

Race 7:

#6 Stars and Strides 2-1 35
#5 Soleil Volant 10-1 34
#8 Mayor of Midnight 9-2 33
#1 Noble Confessor 5-1 33 2nd $5.98

Race 8:

#3 Golden Marsh 20-1 16
#4 Snickery 6-1 15 4th
#12 Tranquil Sea 15-1 15
#7 Hellz Kitchen 5-1 14

Race 9:

#9 Drexel Hill 7-2 33 2nd $6.44
#4 Ourdaydreaminggirl 8-1 32
#6 Fully Subscribed 4-1 31 1st $9.00
#1 Being Myself 6-1 31

Race 10:

#3 Beach Bomb (SAF) 3-1 36 3rd $2.70
#1 No Show Sammy Jo 8-1 35 2nd $7.46
#7 Alluring Angel (GB) 8-1 34 1st $17.82 Tri $771.40
#6 Immensitude (FR) 4-1 33

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 7 7

Race 2: 3,2,8 8

Race 3: 4,2,1 2

Race 4: 8,1 8

Race 5: 4,10,8,5 8

$.50 Ticket: $36 $207.30

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,2,8 8

Race 3: 4,2,1 2

Race 4: 8,1 8

Race 5: 4,10,8,5 8

$.50 Ticket: $36 $143.49

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3: 4,2,1

Race 4: 8,1

Race 5: 4,10,8,5

Race 6: 8,1,5

Race 7: 6,5,8

$.50 Ticket: $108

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 8,1

Race 5: 4,10,8,5

Race 6: 8,1,5,7

Race 7: 6,5,8,1

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 5: 4,10,8,5

Race 6: 8,1,5

Race 7: 6

Race 8: 3,4,12,7

Race 9: 9,4

Race 10: 3

$1.00 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 8,1,5,7

Race 7: 6,5,8,1

Race 8: 3,4,12,7

Race 9: 9,4

Race 10: 3,1

$.50 Ticket: $128

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 6,5,8,1

Race 8: 3,4,12,7

Race 9: 9,4,6

Race 10: 3,1,7

$.50 Ticket: $72

Churchill Downs Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#2 Mizzou 5-2 18 4th
#6 Ripped 4-1 17 1st $18.52
#4 Rothko 8-1 16 2nd $3.30
#5 Sea Vista 2-1 15 scratched

Race 2:

#7 Mamoot 3-1 27
#3 Vasa 5-2 26 1st $5.14
#1 Honest Al 7-2 25
#6 Fifth Avenue 8-1 24 4th

Race 3:

#5 Bolt Dior 9-5 16 1st $5.12
#6 Paradise Street 6-1 15 2nd $3.46 Ex $18.34
#7 Mighty Nora 4-1 14
#4 Girl Named Knicki 7-2 13 4th

Race 4:

#6 First Player 5-2 30 2nd $2.60
#7 Fireball Birdie 6-1 29 3rd $3.72
#3 Deer District 3-1 28
#5 De’ Medici 5-1 27 1st $14.74

Race 5:

#1 A Lilac Rolla (IRE) 2-1 32 4th
#7 Strikingly Spun 8-1 31
#3 Reagan’s Flame 5-1 30 2nd $4.40
#5 Gran Mirella (ARG) 12-1 29

Race 6:

#10 Couperin 10-1 28 1st $13.20
#5 Air of Defiance 7-2 27 3rd $2.48
#6 J J’s Joker 10-1 26 scratched
#3 Ludwig 6-1 26 4th

Race 7:

#3 Fielding 6-1 29
#5 Mitty’s Griddy 3-1 28 4th
#8 On the Level 5-1 27 1st $7.86
#6 Good Lord 12-1 27

Race 8:

#3 Petronella 5-2 19 4th
#7 Noshametohergame 12-1 18 1st $65.54
#11 Dagmara 7-2 17 2nd $7.32
#6 Fatima Blush 8-1 17

Race 9:

#5 Kalahari Dreams 5-2 33 2nd $4.12
#4 Jack’s Time 9-2 32 1st $7.58 Ex $32
#8 U Devil You 8-1 31 3rd $3.18 Tri $105.80
#2 Gardiner 3-1 30

Race 10:

#7 R Disaster 9-5 35 2nd $2.44
#8 Marmalade Skye 15-1 34 scratched
#3 Jersey Pearl 10-1 33 3rd $3.58
#6 Tapit Quick 15-1 32 scratched

Race 11:

#6 Chasing the Crown 7-2 36
#4 Encino 5-1 35
#5 Wolfie’s Dynaghost 10-1 34 1st $27.68
#9 Lagynos 9-2 33 4th

Churchill Downs Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 2,6,4,5 *5 scratched using 2,6,4,1

Race 2: 7,3,1

Race 3: 5,6,7

Race 4: 6,7,3

Race 5: 1,7,3

$.50 Ticket: $162

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 7,3,1,6

Race 3: 5,6,7,4

Race 4: 6,7,3

Race 5: 1,7,3

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 6,7,3

Race 5: 1,7,3

Race 6: 10,5,6,3 *6 scratched using 10,5,3,1

Race 7: 3,5 *3 scratched using 5,8

Race 8: 3,7,11

$.50 Ticket: $108

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 1,7,3,5

Race 6: 10,5,6,3 *6 scratched using 10,5,3,1

Race 7: 3,5,8 *3 scratched using 5,8,6

Race 8: 3,7,11

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 6:

Race 6: 10,5,6,3 *6 scratched using 10,5,3,1

Race 7: 3,5,8 *3 scratched using 5,8,6

Race 8: 3,7,11

Race 9: 5,4

Race 10: 7,8,3,6 *8,6 scratched using 7,3,10,9

Race 11: 6,4,5

$.20 Ticket: $172.80

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 3,5,8 *3 scratched using 5,8,6

Race 8: 3,7,11

Race 9: 5,4,8,2

Race 10: 7,8,3,6 *8,6 scratched using 7,3,10,9

Race 11: 6,4

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 3,7,11

Race 9: 5,4,8,2

Race 10: 7,8,3,6 *8,6 scratched using 7,3,10,9

Race 11: 6,4

$.50 Ticket: $48

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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