October 4th, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site nine years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 15,520/23,961 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 11,046/23,961. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Keeneland Picks/Plays below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#4 Laughing Lady 7-2 15
#9 Snide 5-2 14
#8 Sabby Sunset 12-1 13
#6 Sheer Will 3-1 12

Race 2:

#2 Uncaged 3-1 33
#3 Rated by Merit 2-5 32
#1 Wise Up 9-2 31
#4 Dreambuilder 15-1 30

Race 3:

#7 Booted Up 4-1 26
#8 Zakat 12-1 25
#2 Sittin Chilly 10-1 24
#3 Tapwrits Temper 5-1 24

Race 4:

#4 Hill Road 7-5 34
#6 Noble Confessor 8-1 33
#3 Crudo 4-1 32
#7 Game Warrior 8-1 31

Race 5:

#3 Devilish Grin 5-2 17
#10 River Empress 8-1 16
#1 Irtiqaa 10-1 16
#8 Princess Celine 12-1 15

Race 6:

#9 Five Bars 5-1 31
#11 Lovely Christina 8-1 30
#2 Carmel Coast 7-2 29
#6 Iron Orchard 3-1 29

Race 7:

#6 It’s Our Time 1-1 34
#7 Stickupwithoutagun 30-1 31
#9 Talkin 5-1 31
#1 Curtain Call 6-1 30

Race 8:

#11 Fille d’Oro (IRE) 5-1 33
#12 Quiet Street 7-2 32
#10 Miss Picky 6-1 31
#9 Deep Learning 5-2 30

Race 9:

#8 Gaslight Dancer 12-1 34
#1 Step Forward 6-1 33
#3 Big Invasion 7-2 32
#6 Waralo 3-1 31

Race 10:

#3 Twenty Two Black 5-1 19
#8 My World 9-5 19
#4 Nearly 6-1 18
#7 Double Act 9-2 17

Race 11:

#5 Irish Gent (IRE) 7-2 30
#6 Elbaz (FR) 12-1 29
#10 Main Beach 4-1 28
#3 Risk Tolerance (IRE) 3-1 28

Race 12:

#5 Victoriously 8-1 31
#10 Wrigleyville 7-2 30
#11 Peak Hype 5-2 29
#1 Obeissante 5-1 28

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 4,9,8,6

Race 2: 2,3

Race 3: 7,8,2,3

Race 4: 4,6,3

Race 5: 3,10,1

$.50 Ticket: $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 2,3

Race 3: 7,8,2,3

Race 4: 4,6,3,7

Race 5: 3,10,1,8

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3: 7,8,2,3

Race 4: 4,6,3

Race 5: 3,10,1,8

Race 6: 9,11,2,6

Race 7: 6

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 4,6,3,7

Race 5: 3,10,1,8

Race 6: 9,11,2,6

Race 7: 6

$.50 Ticket: $32

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5: 3,10,1,8

Race 6: 9,11,2,6

Race 7: 6

Race 8: 11,12,10,9

Race 9: 8,1,3

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 4 (6-9):

Race 6: 9,11,2,6

Race 7: 6,7

Race 8: 11,12,10,9

Race 9: 8,1,3,6

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 7: 6

Race 8: 11,12,10,9

Race 9: 8,1,3

Race 10: 3,8

Race 11: 5,6,10

Race 12: 5,10,11

$1.00 Ticket: $216

Late Pick 5:

Race 8: 11,12,10,9

Race 9: 8,1,3

Race 10: 3,8,4

Race 11: 5,6,10,3

Race 12: 5,10,11

$.50 Ticket: $216

Late Pick 4:

Race 9: 8,1,3,6

Race 10: 3,8,4,7

Race 11: 5,6,10,3

Race 12: 5,10,11

$.50 Ticket: $96

Keeneland Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#1 Quick to Charm 6-5 18
#7 Somerville 6-1 17
#6 Merry Madison 3-1 16
#4 Get Back Loretta 4-1 16

Race 2:

#12 Local Knowledge 4-1 19
#1 Mesquite 6-1 19
#3 Midnight Rocket 8-1 18
#2 Commandment 7-2 18

Race 3:

#6 Oscar’s Hope 7-5 30
#7 Outfielder 4-5 29
#3 Imagine John 15-1 27
#4 Swung 20-1 26

Race 4:

#5 States’ Rights 8-1 32
#4 Monterey Bay 8-1 31
#9 Montador 9-2 30
#3 Mc Vay 15-1 30

Race 5:

#6 Tap Into This 3-1 34
#5 Rookie Card 7-2 33
#4 Eglise 8-1 33
#3 Heart Headed 12-1 32

Race 6:

#8 Khaadem (IRE) 4-1 36
#7 Governor Sam 6-1 35
#4 Outlaw Kid 10-1 34
#1 Arrest Me Red 9-2 33

Race 7:

#3 Halina’s Forte 8-1 34
#5 Vahva 7-5 33
#4 Vodka With a Twist 4-1 32
#2 Long Neck Paula 7-2 31

Race 8:

#2 Raqiya (IRE) 8-1 33
#13 Special Wan (IRE) 7-2 AE 33
#10 Ozara (IRE) 6-1 32
#9 Segesta 5-1 31
#5 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 4-1 31

Race 9:

#6 Ted Noffey 4-5 35
#2 Big Dom 4-1 33
#7 Ewing 9-2 32
#1 Blackout Time 10-1 31

Race 10:

#1 Donegal Momentum 12-1 38
#9 Rhetorical 8-1 37
#3 Howard Wolowitz 6-1 36
#4 Diego Velazquez (IRE) 7-2 35

Race 11:

#11 Liberty Valance 5-1 18
#8 Stormforged 6-1 17
#2 Heartily 3-1 17
#5 Steel Golden 12-1 16

Keeneland Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 1,7,6,4

Race 2: 12,1,3,2

Race 3: 6,7

Race 4: 5,4,9

Race 5: 6,5

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 12,1,3,2

Race 3: 6,7

Race 4: 5,4,9,3

Race 5: 6,5,4,3

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 5: 6,5

Race 6: 8,7,4

Race 7: 3,5,4

Race 8: 2,13,10

Race 9: 6

Race 10: 1,9,3,4

$1.00 Ticket: $216

Pick 5 (6-10):

Race 6: 8,7,4,1

Race 7: 3,5,4

Race 8: 2,13,10,9

Race 9: 6,2

Race 10: 1,9,3

$.50 Ticket: $144

Pick 4 (7-10):

Race 7: 3,5,4

Race 8: 2,13,10,9

Race 9: 6,2

Race 10: 1,9,3,4

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 4 (8-11):

Race 8: 2,13,10,9

Race 9: 6,2

Race 10: 1,9,3,4

Race 11: 11,8,2,5

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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