A Winning Day at the Races!

April 13th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 13,452/20,638 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,487/20,638. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Free Full Card Aqueduct Keeneland Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#1a Hydra 1-1                          26 4th
#6 Peachy Weachy 8-1           25 2nd $7.10
#3 Trade Secret 5-2                25 3rd $7.40
#2 Killy Start 6-1                     24 scratched 

Race 2:

#1 Mommasgottagun 2-1      18 4th
#3 Lake Abanakee 4-1            17 1st $15.60
#4 Mulkey 7-5                          16 2nd $2.50
#2 La Fiere 8-1                         15

Race 3:

#3 Debate 7-2                           31 3rd $3.00
#4 Assume Nothing 5-2         30 1st $9.00
#6 Mighty Atlas 4-1                29 2nd $4.00 Tri $123
#5 Fighting Back 2-1              29

Race 4:

#2 Safalow’s Mission 9-5      29 *Best Bet 3rd $2.10
#5 Jackson Heights 3-1         28 2nd $3.30
#1 Horse Be With You 5-2    27 1st $9.40 Tri $82
#6 Flip’s Dream 4-1                27

Race 5:

#5 Twelth Man 5-2                 31 3rd $2.90
#4 Bayou Spirit 3-1                29 1st $8.40
#2 Anthracite 8-1                   28
#1 Morning Cup 9-2               27 scratched

Race 6:

#7 Dangerous Ride 2-1         30 scratched 
#4 Mr Bob 6-1                         29 2nd $3.30
#5 Gentlemen Joe 3-1           29 scratched
#3 Majestic Frontier 8-1       28 3rd $2.40

Race 7:

#9 Metatron 8-1                     17
#4 Bob John Ray 5-2              16 1st $7.10
#2 Aelfgar 7-2                         15
#1 Sorority Prank 6-1            15 3rd $4.50

Race 8:

#1 Colonel Vargo 4-5            31 1st $3.00
#4 Motion to Strike 5-1        29 4th
#7 Mr Phil 8-1                        28 3rd $3.10
#3 Anything Pazible 15-1    27

Race 9:

#7 Merlin’s Moment 3-1       17 1st $13.40 Dbl $15.60
#8 Sir Magic 4-1                     16
#2 Judge Rules 5-1                 15 3rd $4.50
#5 Iron Man Ira 12-1             15 2nd $7.10

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  1a/1,6,3,2

Race 2:  1,3,4

Race 3:  3,4

Race 4:  2,5

Race 5:  5,4

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  1,3,4,2 3

Race 3:  3,4,6 4

Race 4:  2,5,1 1

Race 5:  5,4 4

$.50 Ticket:  $54 $344.25

Pick 3 (3-6):

Race 3:  3,4

Race 4:  2,5,1

Race 5:  5,4

Race 6:  7,4,5,3 *7,5 scratched using 4,3,6

$.50 Ticket:  $24

Pick 6:

Race 4:  2

Race 5:  5,4

Race 6:  7,4,5 *7,5 scratched using 4,3,6

Race 7:  9,4,2

Race 8:  1,4

Race 9:  7,8,2

$1.00 Ticket:  $108

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  5,4

Race 6:  7,4,5 *7,5 scratched using 4,3,6

Race 7:  9,4,2

Race 8:  1,4

Race 9:  7,8,2

$.50 Ticket:  $54

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  7,4,5,3 *5 scratched using 4,3,6

Race 7:  9,4,2,1

Race 8:  1,4

Race 9:  7,8,2,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Keeneland Selections 

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#10 Stuck On You 10-1             15
#1 Gloriette 4-1                          15 1st $4.78
#3 Missile 2-1                             14 3rd $2.74
#4 Iguazu (IRE) 9-2                   14

Race 2:

#3 Theroanrunner 8-5             29 2nd $3.72
#4 Liam’s Champ 3-1               28 4th
#6 St. Benedicts Prep 6-1        27 1st $5.74
#8 Birdie Rose 8-1                     27 scratched

Race 3:

#4 Eirik Ridge 4-1                     17 2nd $3.82
#1 Modern Day Warrior 9-2    16 scratched 
#7 True Faith 8-1                      15 scratched
#3 Zeca Diabo 8-1                     17

Race 4:

#9 Shadow Surge 7-2               19 4th
#7 Beckster 4-1                         18 scratched
#10 Red State 4-1                     17 1st $8.50
#3 Lou’s Legacy 9-2                 17 2nd $4.66

Race 5:

#2 Spaliday 5-2                         18 3rd $2.32
#6 Wine and Waves 12-1        17
#5 Scarlet Poppy (IRE) 4-1     16 4th
#9 Ready for Shirl 6-1             16 1st $17.86

Race 6:

#2 Julia Shining 1-1                 34 3rd $2.10
#7 Musical Mischief 5-1         32 2nd $4.86
#6 Fireline 4-1                          30 4th
#1 Magical Lute 6-1                29 1st $16.12 Spr $297.40

Race 7:

#2 Bling 6-1                             35
#4 Oeuvre 8-1                         34
#7 Port Townsend 20-1         33
#6 Secret Money 15-1            32 4th

Race 8:

#7 Classic Catch 2-1               36 4th
#2 Transect 3-1                       34
#5 Hayes Strike 8-1                33 2nd $6.54
#6 Gilcrease 9-2                      32 scratched 

Race 9:

#5 English Rose (IRE) 9-2    36 2nd $4.12
#7 Surge Capacity 5-1           35 4th
#6 Gina Romantica 3-1         34
#1 Walkathon 10-1                33

Race 10:

#2 The Wine Steward 5-2    33 2nd $3.32
#8 Encino 5-1                         32 1st $8.62 Ex $21.18
#4 Footprint 10-1                  31
#5 Hades 7-2                           31

Race 11:

#8 St. Armands Key 6-1         29
#11 Frontline Warrior 8-1     28
#10 Beyond Stoked 6-1          28
#5 Royal Majesty (GB) 9-2     27

Keeneland Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  10,1,3

Race 2:  3,4

Race 3:  4,1,7,3 *1,7 scratched using 4,3,12,6

Race 4:  9,7,10,3 *7 scratched using 9,10,3,6

Race 5:  2,6,5

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  3,4

Race 3:  4,1,7,3 *1,7 scratched using 4,3,12,6

Race 4:  9,7,10,3 *7 scratched using 9,10,3,6

Race 5:  2,6,5,9

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4:  9,7,10,3 *7 scratched using 9,10,3,6

Race 5:  2,6,5,9

Race 6:  2,7

Race 7:  2,4,7,6

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 6:  2

Race 7:  2,4,7,6

Race 8:  7,2

Race 9:  5,7,6

Race 10: 2,8,4

Race 11:  8,11,10

$1.00 Ticket:  $216

Late Pick 5:

Race 7:  2,4,7,6

Race 8:  7,2

Race 9:  5,7,6

Race 10: 2,8,4

Race 11:  8,11,10,5

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 8:  7,2

Race 9:  5,7,6,1

Race 10: 2,8,4,5

Race 11:  8,11,10,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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