December 10th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,686/17,853, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 8,090/17,853. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Oaklawn Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#3 Ee Yah 5-2 16 4th
#1 Sixwillberich 9-2 15
#2 Mo Than Luck 6-1 14 2nd $6.70
#6 Wave Action 6-1 13 3rd $3.70

Eh Yah just missed at this level up at the Spa this past summer after a troubled beginning, gets in light with bug rider, must respect this barn which has been sending out nothing but live horses of late. Sixwillberich adds blinkers and gets Carmouche today, expect he comes out running from the inside and tries to dictate the pace. Mo Than Luck has a number of better than average drills, barn always flies under the radar often scoring at a price.

Race 2:

#3 Sa Foradada 5-2 28 2nd $3.60
#2 Brisky Frolic 3-1 27
#5 Dame Cinco 3-1 26 1st $4.90
#4 Racing Colors 9-2 26

Sa Foradada had a nice effort off the bench last out, should move forward off of that one. Brisky Frolic exits an impressive wire job on the drop off the layoff, strong contender right back for hot barn. Dame Cinco goes first off the claim for sharp outfit, protected today a good sign.

Race 3:

#7 Ninth Hour 7-2 27
#6 Poppy’s Pride 5-1 27 3rd $3.30
#2 Dee Bo 3-1 26 1st $5.70
#5 Casalsa 4-1 25 4th

Ninth Hour is in super form having won three of last four up North. Gelding is one dimensional and will take them as far as he can, might be difficult to run down if left alone early. Poppy’s Pride takes a substantial drop and goes second off the layoff, could wake up today. Dee Bo found his friends at the Lakes after moving upstate, form is good looks well-spotted against these.

Race 4:

#6 Swift Tip 8-5 28 1st $3.70
#7 Voliero 6-1 27
#2 Good Skate 5-2 26 scratched
#4 Jay’stalker 9-2 25 4th

Swift Tap exits a sharp score against similar, tough right back against a suspect bunch for barn having a good meet. Voliero steps up first off the claim, body of work is solid, the one to beat if he brings his A game. Good Skate in a bit tough last out, returns to claiming ranks today. A repeat of the two back effort in which he posted a career best 85 Beyer would be good enough here.

Race 5:

#6 Majestic Tiger 8-1 27 2nd $7.70
#9 Storm Shooter 5-2 26
#4 Jade’s Dream 9-2 25
#3 Brunate 4-1 25 3rd $3.90

Majestic Tiger adds blinkers and cuts back to a sprint today, his best career fig came in a win over this oval back in March. Storm Shooter gets much needed class relief after facing mostly tougher for these connections since the claim back in May. Jade’s Dream steps up here after game score last out at Pen, sharp claiming outfit is back up and running after a long hiatus.

Race 6:

#3 Run Up the Score 5-1 28
#6 Trade Secret 7-2 28
#9 Vallarand 4-1 27 2nd $4.80
#5 Music Amore 8-1 27

Run Up the Score gets back to dirt and back to the claiming ranks, looks mighty live for Linda. Trade Secret goes out for new connections off the claim in solid form, major player. Vallarand makes key third start in this form cycle for hot barn.

Race 7:

#4 Who Hoo Thats Me 8-5 32 3rd
#6 Bold Journey 10-1 30 4th
#5 Colormepazzi 10-1 29
#2 Scilly Cay 7-2 29

Woo Hoo Thats Me got a career best fig last out when second to a good one, consistent guy simply looks better than these on paper. Bold Journey steps up after handling a nw1x group in last, figures to get a good setup with some speed signed on today. Colormepazzi exits a career best effort but will have company on the front end.

Race 8:

#7 Beguine 3-1 34
#5 Smash Ticket 2-1 33
#2 Hot Peppers 4-1 32
#1 Betsy Blue 5-2 31

Beguine owns the field’s only career triple-digit speed fig, adds blinkers in third of form cycle and figures to get a nice stalking trip off some dedicated speed. Smash Ticket didn’t fire at Keeneland in last, we’ll draw a line through that one and expect she returns to the form of the three recent outings, only question is how she handles others that have a similar running style? Hot Peppers has been given a freshening after a taxing summer campaign, she also will have to contend with others that do their best work forwardly placed.

Race 9:

#6 What’s Up Bro 4-1 16
#7 Ferris Muler 15-1 15
#5 Little Luca 7-2 15
#2 American Grant 12-1 14

What’s Up Bro got an education in an eventful debut, expect a much-improved effort today with one under his belt. Ferris Muler debuts off a string of good, steady works, sire has thrown some runners. Little Luca popped and stopped after taking a little money on debut, has been gelded since and gets weight off with very capable bug rider.

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 3,1,2,6 x

Race 2: 3,2,5 5

Race 3: 7,6,2 2

Race 4: 6 6

Race 5: 6,9,4 x

$.50 Ticket $54

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,2,5,4 5

Race 3: 7,6,2,5 2

Race 4: 6,7,2 6

Race 5: 6,9,4,3 x

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 3 (3-6):

Race 3: 7,6,2,5 2

Race 4: 6,7,2 6

Race 5: 6,9,4,3 x

Race 6: 3,6,9 x

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 6:

Race 4: 6 6

Race 5: 6,9,4,3 x

Race 6: 3,6,9 x

Race 7: 4

Race 8: 7,5

Race 9: 6,7,5

$1.00 Ticket: $72

Late Pick 5:

Race 5: 6,9,4,3 x

Race 6: 3,6,9 x

Race 7: 4,6

Race 8: 7,5

Race 9: 6,7,5,2

$.50 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 6: 3,6,9,5 x

Race 7: 4,6,5,2 *2 scratched using 4,6,5,7

Race 8: 7,5

Race 9: 6,7,5,2

$.50 Ticket: $64

Oaklawn Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#8 Breaking News 5-2 28 scratched
#1 Crimson Zip 9-2 26
#7 Forevamo 6-1 25
#2 Atras 4-1 24

Race 2:

#11 Wicked Prince 10-1 16
#3 Watch This Birdie 6-5 16 2nd $3.40
#6 Stuck N Snow 7-2 15 3rd $2.60
#12 Choctaw Zip 10-1 14 1st $10.40

Race 3:

#4 Otis Otis Otis 8-5 29
#6 Love My Jimmy 5-2 28 1st $9.60
#5 Hot Pastrami 6-1 27 3rd $4.00
#3 Violent Gigi 9-2 27 2nd $5.60

Race 4:

#8 Bettys Cash 7-2 27
#7 Mahomey 10-1 26 3rd
#12 Mo Choctaw 9-2 26
#4 Bellamys Roan 6-1 25 2nd

Race 5:

#8 Lark’s Mischief 5-2 19
#7 Cowboy Values 4-1 18
#12 Runningforcash 12-1 17
#9 J J’s Joker 6-1 17

Race 6:

#1 Skelly 8-5 33
#4 Tapit’s Spirit 3-1 32
#3 Tango Charlie 5-1 31
#6 Improbable Journey 6-1 30

Race 7:

#7 Chattalot 5-2 35
#6 Kavod 2-1 34
#5 One for Richie 4-1 33
#1 Flash of Mischief 7-2 32

Race 8:

#10 Empire’s Best 10-1 18
#12 Parkway 9-2 18
#8 Rungius 3-1 17
#2 Bougie Joe 4-1 17

Race 9:

#4 Will’s Secret 10-1 34
#6 Le Da Vida (CHI) 8-5 34
#1 Coach 2-1 33
#2 Ice Orchid 5-1 31

Race 10:

#7 American Xperiment 7-2 30
#12 Ben Diesel 5-2 29
#5 B Sudd 8-1 28
#4 Broken Rib 9-2 28

Oaklawn Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 8,1,7,2 x

Race 2: 11,3,6 x

Race 3: 4,6 6

Race 4: 8,7,12

Race 5: 8,7

$.50 Ticket: $72

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 11,3,6,12 12

Race 3: 4,6,5,3 6

Race 4: 8,7,12,4

Race 5: 8,7

$.50 Ticket: $64

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 1,4,3,6

Race 7: 7,6

Race 8: 10,12,8,2

Race 9: 4,6,1

Race 10: 7,12,5,4

$.50 Ticket: $192

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 7,6

Race 8: 10,12,8,2

Race 9: 4,6,1,2

Race 10: 7,12,5,4

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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