A Winning Day at the Races!

December 9th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,679/17,844, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 8086/17,844. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Friday’s Full Card Aqueduct Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#6 Kitten’s Appeal 7-2                 16 1st $5.00
#4 Improper 7-5                            15 3rd $2.60
#1 Captain Quick 5-2                   15
#5 Norgay 4-1                                14 2nd $3.50

Kitten’s Appeal exits a live heat in which both first and second place finishers came back to graduate. She is the most consistent of this weak bunch, only off the board once in her career and gets the services of the hottest jock on the grounds. The filly is a tactical sort and gets an advantageous outside post, a lot to like. Improper has a respectable effort over this oval last spring going a mile, he looks like a major player if he doesn’t need one off the bench. Captain Quick has the best career speed figs in the race, but the majority came on grass. That said he has shown he can compete on dirt, the second-place finish down at the Jersey Shore back in September was decent.

Race 2:

#6 That Is Key 7-2                         27 4th
#7 Kerik 6-1                                    26 3rd $2.80
#4 Melting Snow 8-5                    26 1st $3.10
#1 Sweet Blindness 9-2                25

That Is Key is in good form, exiting a strong score by open lengths over this track at the distance last out, jock obviously gets along well with this mare, having won twice on her. Kerik was in too tough last couple, takes much needed drop to the claiming ranks, candidate to wake up today. Melting Snow was claimed last out and drops, not a confident move, but Linda owns this one and knows how to play the claiming game well, live for sure.

Race 3:

#4 Bunty Windermere 5-2          26 3rd $2.70
#5 Riding On a Winner 3-1         25
#6 My Delicious 9-2                      25 4th
#1 Moam 7-2                                   24 2nd $4.30

Bunty Windermere looks loose in here and gets top journeyman rider, won’t take much to discourage this weak group, wire to wire. Riding On a Winner is in for a tag, dropping from allowance company, but not sure she is truly getting class relief today. My Delicious is consistent if nothing else, can’t exclude, especially against the likes of these.

Race 4:

#2 Super Quality 7-2                     15 2nd $3.50
#3 John’s Protege 8-5                   15 1st $6.00 Ex $22.60
#6 North Pole 2-1                          14 3rd $2.40 Tri $46.20
#5 Genesis One 10-1                     14

Super Quality disappointed as favorite on the drop and cutback last out, could forget to stop today with Carmouche. John’s Protege looks like a standout on paper, but looks a bit dicey, why the long break? Player obviously, but tread lightly. North Pole has become one of those professional maidens, will graduate one of these days.

Race 5:

#9 Midnight Worker 7-2                28
#6 Ria’s Angel 5-2                           27 1st $5.90
#1a Astral Weeks 5-1                      26
#7 Centavo 20-1                               26

Midnight Worker was thought of pretty highly early on with some stakes appearances , but gelding has gone south since. He will get blinkers today, and makes first start for Rudy after a decent third at the level in a live heat, will give him another chance today. Ria’s Angel didn’t fire as favorite in last, claimed out of that start and drops, barn’s runners have been firing, expect big effort. Astral Weeks ships up from Florida off a strong effort off the bench, should be tighter today after that one.

Race 6:

#6 Complete Agenda 6-5                29 2nd $3.20
#1 Spettro 12-1                                 28
#3 Curbstone 4-1                              27 1st $27.20
#4 Uncle Water Flow 7-2                 26

Complete Agenda is for sale for the first time in career, should handle these with the class relief for top connections. Spettro has been on the turf for most of his starts but didn’t embarrass himself on dirt early on. He does possess the always dangerous commodity of speed and does his best work up on the engine, expect he will be put in the game early from the inside. If able to shake loose he could be quite dangerous. Curbstone is clearly off form but could wake up on the drop in second off the bench with the surface switch.

Race 7:

#5 Speaks for Itself 5-2                  32
#1 Desert Dalliance 8-1                  30
#9 Runaway Rockette 12-1            30
#8 Ruvies in Time 8-1                     29 2nd $14.20

Speaks for Itself probably needed last off the break, expecting something similar to the maiden score today, which would mean trouble for the rest. Desert Dalliance makes third start in this form cycle and gets in light with capable bug rider, player. Runaway Rockette is in decent form and is capable on best.

Race 8:

#4 Synthesis 2-1                              33 1st $8.20
#5 Admundson 7-5                          32 2nd $2.60 Ex $26
#7 Market Alert 6-1                         31 3rd $2.90 Tri $85.48
#3 Fire Sword 6-1                             31

Synthesis gets back to allowance company after facing Grade 3 foes in last, repeat of two back effort gets it done here, barn is firing. Jacobson has picked up where he left off, dangerous. Admundson is in super form, earned a career best speed fig in last, loves Aqueduct, tough right back for hot barn. Market Alert makes first start for new connections, barn firing at 26% at the meet.

Race 9:

#8 Forty Two Ace 5-2                      29
#9 Mason Mania 6-1                        28
#1a Simply 2-1                                  27
#5 Dr. Marbooz 12-1                        26

Forty Two Ace got a sharp fig in last at the level, sitting on a big effort. Mason Mania ships into the Big Apple in good form, a player in first start for new barn. Simply showed interest late last out, should move forward off that effort.

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  6,4,1 6

Race 2:  6,7,4 4

Race 3:  4,5 x

Race 4:  2,3,6 3

Race 5:  9,6,1a/1 6

$.50 Ticket:  $81

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  6,7,4,1 4

Race 3:  4,5 x

Race 4:  2,3,6,5 3

Race 5:  9,6,1a/1,7 6

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 4:

Race 3:  4,5 x

Race 4:  2,3,6,5 3

Race 5:  9,6,1a/1,7 6

Race 6:  6,1,3,4 3

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 4:  2,3,6 3

Race 5:  9,6,1a/1 6

Race 6:  6 x

Race 7:  5 x

Race 8:  4,5 4

Race 9:  8,9,1a/1

$1.00 Ticket:  $54

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  9,6,1a/1 6

Race 6:  6,1,3 3

Race 7:  5,1 x

Race 8:  4,5,7 4

Race 9:  8,9,1a/1

$.50 Ticket:  $81

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  6,1,3 3

Race 7:  5,1,9,8 x

Race 8:  4,5,7,3 4

Race 9:  8,9,1a/1

$.50 Ticket:  $72

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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