A Winning Day at the Races!

January 17th , 2020 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily. For Full Picks/Plays please visit the Member Area.

*Since the launch of this site four years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 67% of the time 8942/13554, and top choice first or second 44% of the time 5908/13554. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Prayers for everyone affected by this virus…

*Going forward Picks/Plays will remain free on weekdays and posted here…Weekends will require the purchase of a Two Day/Weekend Pass…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1 :  Strength Variable :

#2 Khafre 8-5                              19 3rd $2.60
#4 Too Boss 6-5                          17 1st $5.00
#1 Repo Rocks 4-1                      16 4th
#5 Highland Beach 8-1              15 scratched

Khafre debuts for conditioner that usually brings them along slowly, but works say this guy is ready to roll first out, word is he’s a runner. Too Boss ran well enough in debut, gets Lasix today for top outfit, should improve with one under his belt. Repo Rocks has had plenty of chances, but take note career best fig came two back at today’s distance.

Race 4 :

#8 Queendom 10-1                     27
#4 Nicky Scissors 9-5                 27 2nd $3.80
#1 Choose Happiness 5-1          26 4th
#2 Mebs Web 8-1                         25 3rd $5.80

Queendom has been knocking on the door at this level, rider has gotten to know her now, barn’s runners are firing. Nicky Scissors ran well in first try for new barn, should move forward in second off the bench. Choose Happiness just missed last out against a similar group at today’s trip , would not be a surprise.

Race 9 :

#5 Hayezhee 9-5                           27
#6 Holmdel Park 2-1                    25
#8 Foley Square 9-2                      24
#7 Trapped N My Mind 6-1         24

Hayezhee looks like the one in this weak group for Toby Sheets who runs the Asmussen Barn here in NY. Holmdel Park drops yet again , won’t take much to be competitive in here. Foley Square popped and stopped in last, could get brave against these.

 

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 


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