July 1st, 2023 Free Picks & Plays

*Free Picks/Plays will be posted here on certain days…Visit the “Membership Page” for Full Access on all other days…

*Since the launch of this site seven years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 12,569/19,197, and top choice first or second 46% of the time 8,809/19,197. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Full Card Picks/Plays will be posted here on the Free Page through the Holiday Weekend…Happy Fourth of July!!

*Saturday’s Full Card Belmont & Ellis Picks/Plays Below…

Belmont Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#3 Two Chuckles 7-2 12 2nd $6.20
#7 Tunnel Vision 3-1 11 4th
#5 Woodside Warrior 5-1 10 3rd $3.00
#2 Modern Midas 5-2 10 1st $5.20 Spr $154

Race 2:

#5 Gal in a Rush 9-5 32 1st $4.40
#1 Pond Walker (GB) 5-2 31
#6 Candle 7-2 30 3rd $2.90
#2 Diamond Hands 3-1 29 2nd $2.50

Race 3:

#3 Film Star 5-2 34 2nd $3.40
#4 Reserve Currency 7-2 33
#6 Victory Way 5-1 32 1st $8.20
#2 Whittington Park 3-1 32 3rd $2.60

Race 4:

#6 Daunt 5-2 35 2nd $3.40
#1a Dripping Gold 2-1 34 4th
#4 Space Launch 3-1 33 3rd $2.60
#3 Chulainn 5-1 33 1st $8.70

Race 5:

#4 Northen Invader 6-1 19 1st $3.70
#8 Right to Win (IRE) 3-1 18 3rd $3.10
#6 Weyhill Road 7-2 18 4th
#5 Torigo 12-1 17 2nd $12.40 Spr $675

Race 6:

#5 Fort Bragg 8-5 37 1st $3.40
#2 Saudi Crown 2-1 36 2nd $2.60
#3 Harrodsburg 7-2 35 3rd $2.80
#6 Joey Freshwater 6-1 33 4th

Race 7:

#1 Bad to the Bones 3-1 33
#3 Brew Pub 9-2 32 2nd $4.80
#8 Winters Lion 10-1 31 3rd $4.80
#4 Daddy Knows 4-1 31

Race 8:

#9 Broken Spur 9-2 30 3rd $5.70
#12 Kingfish Stevens 8-1 29 4th
#6 Shinsun 8-1 28 2nd $6.20
#5 Forwardly 5-1 28

Race 9:

#7 Synthesis 15-1 36 2nd $18.80
#1 Candy Man Rocket 2-1 35 3rd $3.30
#3 Weyburn 7-2 34
#4 Twisted Ride 6-1 33

Race 10:

#2 Miracle Mike 3-1 15 1st $5.90
#1 Aula 4-1 14
#6 Your Mission 7-2 13 3rd $2.40
#8 Awesome Force 10-1 12

Belmont Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 3,7,5,2 2

Race 2: 5,1 5

Race 3: 3,4 x

Race 4: 6,1a/1,4,3 3

Race 5: 4,8,6 4

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 5,1,6,2 5

Race 3: 3,4,6,2 6

Race 4: 6,1a/1 x

Race 5: 4,8,6,5 4

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 6,1a/1,4 x

Race 5: 4,8,6,5 4

Race 6: 5,2,3 5

Race 7: 1,3

$.50 Ticket: $36

Pick 6:

Race 5: 4,8,6 4

Race 6: 5,2 5

Race 7: 1,3

Race 8: 9,12,6

Race 9: 7,1

Race 10: 2

$1.00 Ticket: $72

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 5,2,3 5

Race 7: 1,3,8

Race 8: 9,12,6,5

Race 9: 7,1,3

Race 10: 2,1

$.50 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 1,3,8,4

Race 8: 9,12,6,5

Race 9: 7,1,3

Race 10: 2,1,6

$.50 Ticket: $72

Ellis Park Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#7 Sapphire Nights 5-2 16
#8 Espere 8-1 15
#1 Mrs. Rip 10-1 14 1st $23.82
#4 Our Keepsake 5-1 13 scratched

Race 2:

#3 Pumpkin Scone 5-2 19 2nd $2.72
#1 Fancy 7-2 18 4th
#2 Petticoat 10-1 17
#6 Absinthe 3-1 16 1st $6.70

Race 3:

#5 Hidden Path 6-1 35
#1 Mo Stash 2-1 35 2nd $2.76
#2 Wadsworth 9-5 34 1st $4.50
#4 Gigante 4-1 33

Race 4:

#10 Normandy Hero 5-1 20
#8 Seize the Grey 8-1 19
#2 Edified 6-1 19 1st $21.70
#6 Django 10-1 18 3rd $9.44

Race 5:

#2 Sinfiltre 6-1 33 1st $11.20
#4 Fancy Martini 4-1 32 3rd $2.76
#7 Flatter Me Silly 5-1 32
#6 Manuca (BRZ) 7-2 30 scratched

Race 6:

#2 Bango 2-1 38 1st $4.30 Dbl $36.76
#4 Happy Jack 5-1 36
#5 Marsalis 6-1 35 2nd $4.98
#7 Tejano Twist 3-1 33 4th

Race 7:

#6 Hoist the Gold 1-1 37 1st $3.68 Pk 3 $86.52
#5 Broken Rib 12-1 34 4th
#11 Bron and Brow 4-1 34
#7 Trafalgar 10-1 32

Race 8:

#2 Moon Swag 6-1 36 scratched
#6 A Mo Reay 8-5 35 2nd
#3 Royal Take Charge 6-1 33 scratched
#7 Heartyconstitution 5-1 32 scratched

Race 9:

#8 Set Piece (GB) 4-5 39
#5 Play Action Pass 12-1 36
#1 Harlan Estate 10-1 35
#4 Get Smokin 5-1 35

Race 10:

#5 Smile Happy 3-1 42
#4 Rattle N Roll 4-1 41
#1 Proxy 4-1 40
#2 Stilleto Boy 6-1 39

Race 11:

#3 Heavenly Sunday 5-2 34
#2 Safeen 5-1 33
#5 Xigera 2-1 32
#4 Wonderfull Lady (FR) 8-1 31

Ellis Park Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 7,8,1,4 1

Race 2: 3,1 x

Race 3: 5,1,2 2

Race 4: 10,8,2 2

Race 5: 2,4,7 2

$.50 Ticket: 108

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,1 x

Race 3: 5,1,2 2

Race 4: 10,8,2,6 2

Race 5: 2,4,7,6 2

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 10,8,2,6 2

Race 5: 2,4,7,6 2

Race 6: 2,4,5,7 2

Race 7: 6 6

Race 8: 2,6,3 x

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 2,4,7,6 2

Race 6: 2,4,5,7 2

Race 7: 6,5 6

Race 8: 2,6,3 x

$.50 Ticket: $48

Pick 6:

Race 6: 2,4,5,7 2

Race 7: 6 6

Race 8: 2,6,3 x

Race 9: 8,5,1,4

Race 10: 5,4,1

Race 11: 3,2,5

$.20 Ticket: $86.40

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 6,5,11 6

Race 8: 2,6,3,7 x

Race 9: 8,5

Race 10: 5,4,1

Race 11: 3,2,5

$.50 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 2,6,3,7 x

Race 9: 8,5,1,4

Race 10: 5,4

Race 11: 3,2,5

$.50 Ticket: $48

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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