July 4th, 2026 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site ten years ago, our statistics have remained consistent. The race winner is in the top three selections 65% of the time, 16,542/25,583 and the top choice first or second 46% of the time, 11,792/25,583. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity. You will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Middle Pick 5 for us at Churchill Downs last Saturday… $427.13 on a $121.50 ticket…

*Pick 6 for us at Aqueduct last Saturday…$1,174.08 on a $144 ticket…

*Happy 4th of July!!…

*Saturday’s Full Card Saratoga Picks/Plays below…

Saratoga Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#1 Feminism 3-1 32
#4 Mashallah 3-5 31
#3 Lovely Christina 5-2 29
#5 Lightscape 15-1 28

Race 2:

#4 Eponine (IRE) 5-2 31
#2 Accent (GB) 8-5 30
#1 Ori 8-1 29
#6 New Rose 10-1 28

Race 3:

#5 Secretly Delighted 9-2 20
#6 Shelzawa (FR) 5-2 19
#2 Fango Creek 8-1 18
#4 Romala 10-1 18

Race 4:

#4 Angel Gift 12-1 28
#8 Grace and Grit 7-2 28
#6 Baseball Lady 8-1 27
#1 Lightning Strike 9-5 26

Race 5:

#2 Booked 3-1 30
#5 Vissino 6-1 29
#1 Waggley 6-1 28
#7 Ashcroft Lane 5-1 28

Race 6:

#5 Rhyton 6-1 19
#4 Truman’s Commander 5-1 18
#2 Cristobal 9-2 18
#11 Van Vollenhoven 7-2 17

Race 7:

#6 Fitz Right 6-1 34
#2 Time to Dream 12-1 33
#1 Just Aloof 8-1 32
#4 Faithful Departed 5-1 32

Race 8:

#9 Stars and Stripes 6-1 39
#4 Parchment Party 8-1 38
#1 Classicist 20-1 37
#5 Tiztastic 12-1 36

Race 9:

#8 West End Kid 3-1 34
#3 Remember Mamba 7-2 33
#2 Bottas 10-1 33
#1 Blackmail 12-1 32

Race 10:

#7 Capital Idea 4-1 37
#3 Full Screen (ON) 7-2 37
#8 Bramito 5-1 36
#6 Tuscan Sky 10-1 35

Race 11:

#11 Silly Season 2-1 17
#6 Nobody Knows 10-1 16
#1 Morning Prayer 7-2 16
#4 No Ordinary Love 8-1 15

Saratoga Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 1,4,3

Race 2: 4,2

Race 3: 5,6

Race 4: 4,8,6,1

Race 5: 2,5,1,7

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 4,2

Race 3: 5,6,2,4

Race 4: 4,8,6,1

Race 5: 2,5,1,7

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3: 5,6

Race 4: 4,8,6,1

Race 5: 2,5,1

Race 6: 5,4,2

Race 7: 6,2,1

$.50 Ticket: $108

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 4,8,6,1

Race 5: 2,5,1,7

Race 6: 5,4,2,11

Race 7: 6,2,1

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5: 2,5,1,7

Race 6: 5,4,2,11

Race 7: 6,2,1,4

Race 8: 9,4

Race 9: 8,3

$.50 Ticket: $128

Pick 6:

Race 6: 5,4.2,11

Race 7: 6,2,1,4

Race 8: 9,4

Race 9: 8,3,2

Race 10: 7,3

Race 11: 11

$1.00 Ticket: $192

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 6,2,1,4

Race 8: 9,4,1,5

Race 9: 8,3

Race 10: 7,3,8

Race 11: 11,6,1

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 9,4,1,5

Race 9: 8,3,2,1

Race 10: 7,3,8

Race 11: 11,6,1

$.50 Ticket: $72

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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