July 5th, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

• July 4, 2025
• Free Picks & Plays
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Since the launch of this site nine years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 15,210/23,424 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,830/23,424. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

Happy Fourth of July!!

*Saturday’s Full Card Saratoga Picks/Plays Below…

Saratoga Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#6 Bento Express (JPN) 5-2       19 scratched
#5 Empires King 6-1                   18 2nd $4.70
#2 Ewing 6-5                                 17 1st $2.70 Ex $9.90
#1 Tartabull 8-1                           16 3rd $3.20 Tri $31.80

Race 2:

#1 Leading Contender 8-5         31 3rd $2.40
#6 Call Me Fast 2-1                     30
#5 Hero’s Medal 7-2                    29 2nd $6.60
#3 Unbridled Bomber 8-1          28 4th

Race 3:

#2 Obliteration 7-5                     30 1st $3.80
#5 Strategic Risk 9-2                  29 4th
#4 Blinging It Back 6-5              29 2nd $2.40
#1 Imagine John 12-1                 28 3rd $3.40

Race 4:

#3 Ragtime 9-5                             32 1st $3.80
#1a Limes Don’t Lie 8-5             31 scratched
#1 Points Is Points 8-5                30
#5 Alyeska 3-1                              29 3rd $2.70

Race 5:

#7 Summer Whirl 9-5                  29 2nd $3.40
#4 National Archive 3-1              28 1st $7.10 Ex $25.80
#1 North End Lady 5-2                27 3rd $2.20 Tri $48.80
#3 Backcheck 10-1                        27

Race 6:

#1 Matadora 2-1                          19 4th
#5 Embrace Time 5-2                  18 1st $7.00
#3 Stylish Gem 15-1                    18
#4 Starlit Sky 10-1                       17

Race 7:

#5 Gin’s Beach Road 4-1             20 3rd $2.80
#4 Filly Freedom 8-5                    19 2nd $2.50
#7 Celestial Speed 9-2                 18
#1 Trango Tower 6-1                    18 4th

Race 8:

#4 Judge Davis 9-2                        34 4th
#7 Antares 3-1                               33
#6 Light the Way 12-1                  32
#3 Twisted Filigree 6-1                 31 1st $20.20

Race 9:

#2 Braciole 10-1                            31
#5 What’s Up Bro 7-2                   30 scratched 
#4 I’m Wide Awake 3-1                29 3rd $2.10
#1 Shipsational 10-1                     29 4th

Race 10:

#2 Intellect (FR) 3-1                     36 2nd $3.20
#4 Donegal Momentum 5-2        35
#1 Neat 15-1                                   34 4th
#6 Mountain Bear (IRE) 6-1        33

Race 11:

#3 Totally Justified 6-1                35
#7 Nitrogen 4-5                             35 2nd $2.20
#5 Fionn 5-1                                   34 1st $14.40
#2 Opulent Restraint 10-1           33 3rd $4.60

Race 12:

#11 Capt Jax Parrow 9-5               16
#10 Kings and Queens 3-1           15
#7 Solo Mio 10-1                            14
#2 Let’s Get Weird 12-1                13

Saratoga Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  6,5,2 *6 scratched using 5,2,1

Race 2:  1,6

Race 3:  2,5,4

Race 4:  3,1a/1

Race 5:  7,4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $54

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  1,6,5,3

Race 3:  2,5,4

Race 4:  3,1a/1

Race 5:  7,4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $36

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3:  2,5,4

Race 4:  3,1a/1

Race 5:  7,4,1

Race 6:  1,5

Race 7:  5,4,7,1

$.50 Ticket:  $72

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4:  3,1a/1

Race 5:  7,4,1,3

Race 6:  1,5,3,4

Race 7:  5,4,7,1

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 5 (5-9):

Race 5:  7,4,1

Race 6:  1,5

Race 7:  5,4,7,1

Race 8:  4,7,6,3

Race 9:  2,5,4 *5 scratched using 2,4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Pick 4 (6-9):

Race 6:  1,5

Race 7:  5,4,7,1

Race 8:  4,7,6,3

Race 9:  2,5,4,1

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 7:  5,4,7

Race 8:  4,7

Race 9:  2,5,4 *5 scratched using 2,4,1

Race 10: 2,4

Race 11:  3,7

Race 12:  11,10

$1.00 Ticket:  $144

Late Pick 5:

Race 8:  4,7,6,3

Race 9:  2,5,4 *5 scratched using 2,4,1

Race 10: 2,4,1,6

Race 11:  3,7

Race 12:  11,10

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 9:  2,5,4,1

Race 10: 2,4,1,6

Race 11:  3,7,5,2

Race 12:  11,10

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.