A Winning Day at the Races!

March 31st, 2023 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site seven years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 12,152/18,560, and top choice first or second 46% of the time 8,476/18,560. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Visit the “Membership Page” to purchase a “Weekend Pass”…$29.99 for Full Access to Saturday’s Aqueduct/Gulfstream/Oaklawn & Sunday’s Aqueduct Picks/Plays…

*Fridays Full Card Aqueduct Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#6 Gifted 2-1                                  16 2nd $2.30
#2 Randomized 8-5                       15 1st $5.10
#5 Avant 3-1                                   15 3rd $2.30
#4 Accel Rose 10-1                        14

Gifted makes key third start in this form cycle, tactical sort gets an advantageous outside post, sitting on a win. Randomized adds lasix after a decent debut up at the Spa last summer, obviously something went amiss as she’s been on the shelf since. High-priced gal has been wintering in Florida and working smartly for return, top connections all around, major player for sure. Avant also makes third start in this cycle for top outfit, figs are solid.

 Race 2:

#5 Strange Fruit 2-1                      13 3rd $2.20
#7 Babi Dreams 15-1                     12 2nd $13.40
#3 Aeron Warrior 3-1                    11 1st $5.00 Tri $249.48
#2 My Inner Voice 4-1                   11 4th Spr $500

Strange Fruit ran on well in debut, should have gotten a lot out of that try, significant improvement expected in second start.  Babi Dreams has taken her time in getting to the races, debuting here as a four-year old. With that said, works are pretty decent for this level and gets favorable outside post, some things to like. Aeron Warrior showed good energy in last, contender off that effort.

 Race 3:

#6 Curbstone 8-5                            32 1st $3.50
#1 Montauk Point 2-1                    31 4th
#5 Royal Tryst 10-1                        30 scratched
#3 Exit Right 4-1                             29 3rd $2.80

Curbstone has made dramatic improvement since the confidence building conditional claiming score three back. Was sent off favorite last out at this level and didn’t get the cleanest trips while staying on for second. He gets a major rider switch today to hot Franco, looks like the one. Montauk Point ships up from Florida after just missing at this level in last, figures to get a ground saving trip from the inside, and with little speed signed on it would be no surprise to see Lezcano try and shake loose early. Royal Tryst in for the tag after clearing this condition two back, a repeat of that effort puts him right there.

 Race 4:

#7 Ok Honey 2-1                              27 2nd $3.20
#8 Indian Bella 6-1                          26
#6 Girl of Tosconova  9-2               25
#5 Gagliano 8-1                                25

Ok Honey exits strong effort off the bench, should be tight as drum and ready to roll in second off, very live. Indian Bella ran well on the class rise to this level first off the claim last out, major player on current form for barn that’s firing of late. Girl of Tosconova drops in second off the bench, has every right to wake up today.

Race 5:

#7 Paros 8-5                                      28
#8 Little Luca 9-2                             27
#6 Dee’s Speedstre 20-1                  26
#4 Bad Water 6-1                              25

Paros broke slow and was wide the whole way against a similar group in last, figs in last couple eclipse anything the others have achieved, barn had a great winter meet, hard to go against. Little Luca broke maiden impressively last out, goes second lasix and fits well with these. Dee’s Speedstre makes quite a jump in first off the claim today but will go as a first time gelding in third of this cycle. Has the looks of a live longshot for dangerous claiming outfit.

 Race 6:

#5 Cadencia 7-2                                27
#4 Bella Principessa 3-1                  27
#1 Wishing On a Star 6-1                26
#3 Captivating Cara 10-1                25

Cadencia makes first start off the layoff and is primarily a turf runner, but with that said dirt works  are sharp. Sure this could be a fitness outing to prep for rapidly approaching turf season but it must be noted that leading jock is willing to take the call, sneaky live. Bella Principessa has had a tightener and should move forward in second off the long layoff. Wishing On a Star was claimed out of a sharp score for a bottom level tag last out, could factor if able to run back to that effort.

 Race 7:

#5 Dr. Kraft 7-2                                  28
#2 Nineteen Oysters 1-1                  28
#6 Victory Money 3-1                       27
#4 Mighty Atlas 20-1                        26

Dr. Kraft took on stakes company last out first off the maiden score, it was a strong performance considering the trouble at the start. Much more palatable spot today in this first level allowance heat, expecting a big effort. Nineteen Oysters exits a scintillating debut win in which he got an 84 Beyer. He takes on winners for the first time but have to use off that sharp outing, had bullet 5/8th’s drill 3/12 in 59 3/5 th’s that was an eye opener, he could be a good one. Victory Money broke maiden at today’s distance last out, but the fig was a bit light. He does go second lasix and has top connections in his corner, would be foolish to exclude.

Race 8:

#6 Old Point 9-5                                15
#5 Proven Hope 2-1                          14
#4 Ghoststryder 8-1                          12
#2 Warrior Richard 9-2                     11

Old Point has finished second in last two outings at this level following the claim, one of these days for hot barn. Gelding looks logical in a weak field. Proven Hope has disappointed as favorite in last two starts , but is another knocking on the door , should figure strongly in the outcome. Ghoststryder goes second lasix in second off the bench after poor effort against better in last, may be at the right level today.

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  6,2,5 2

Race 2:  5,7,3 3

Race 3:  6,1 6

Race 4:  7,8,6 x

Race 5:  7,8

$.50 Ticket:  $54

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  5,7,3,2 3

Race 3:  6,1 6

Race 4:  7,8,6 x

Race 5:  7,8,6,4

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Pick 6:

Race 3:  6,1 6

Race 4:  7,8,6 x

Race 5:  7

Race 6:  5,4

Race 7:  5,2

Race 8:  6,5

$1.00 Ticket:  $48

Late Pick 5:

Race 4:  7,8,6,5 x

Race 5:  7,8,6,4

Race 6:  5,4,1

Race 7:  5,2

Race 8:  6,5

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 5:  7,8,6,4

Race 6:  5,4,1,3

Race 7:  5,2,6,4

Race 8:  6,5

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.



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