May 4th, 2023 Free Picks & Plays

• May 3, 2023
• Free Picks & Plays
• No comments

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site seven years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 12,300/18,797, and top choice first or second 46% of the time 8,608/18,797. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Visit the “Membership Page” to Purchase a “Derby Weekend Pass” Thursday afternoon or Friday…$39.99 for Full Access to Friday & Saturday’s Belmont/Churchill & Sunday’s Belmont Picks/Plays…

*Purchase a “Kentucky Derby Saturday Pass” Friday afternoon or Saturday…$24.99 for Full Access to Saturday’s Belmont/Churchill Picks/Plays…

*Thursday’s Full Card Belmont Park Picks/Plays Below…

Belmont Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#5 Princess Celina 4-5                 17 1st $2.70
#4 Leslie’s Loot 6-1                      17 2nd $7.40 Ex $19.80
#3 Slainte Mhath 7-2                   16 3rd $2.70 Tri $51
#2 Just the Oaks 10-1                   15

Race 2:

#2 Crowding Out 3-1                     27
#4 Secret Time (GER) 2-1             26
#1 Brisky Frolic 6-1                        25
#8 Lola Flo 8-1                                25

Dirt Selections

#6 Icy Stare Down 5-1 1st $3.70
#5 Just a Nyquist 20-1 3rd $2.70
#9 Princess Pinky 12-1
#1 Brisky Frolic 6-1 2nd $2.60

Race 3:

#5 Gentleman Joe 7-2                   27 3rd $4.30
#2 Caribbean (AUS) 5-2                27
#3 Hammerin Aamer 3-1              26
#6 Pit Boss 8-1                                25 1st $26.40

Race 4:

#7 Collaboration 3-1                    28
#3 Smokie Eyes 2-1                       27
#6 Waterville 6-1                           26
#1 Sals Dream Girl 3-1                  26

Dirt Selections

#9 Amanda’s Folly 8-5 1st $8.20
#2 Captivating Cara 30-1 2nd $11.60 Ex $78
#4 Freddymo Factor 20-1 3rd $6.90 Tri $485.48
#5 Saratoga Gaze 12-1

Race 5:

#5 Breakwater 8-1                         32
#8 Inflation Adjusted 7-2             31 3rd $3.10
#7 Fighter in the Win 9-2             31
#2 Q F Seventy Five 3-1                30 1st $8.90

Dirt Selections

#9 Ouster 3-5
#11 Affable Monarch 4-1
#1 Afjan 20-1
#10 Centavo 15-1

Race 6:

#5 She Caught My Eye 3-1              27 3rd $3.30
#6 Maggie T 7-2                                26
#2 Dashing Della 8-1                       26
#7 Wishing On a Star 4-1                25 1st $7.60

Race 7:

#6 Sweet Mystery 3-1                      29
#1 Bustin Bay 7-2                             28
#2 My First Love 5-1                        27
#7 B B’s Busted 8-1                          27

Race 8:

#2 Doctor Jeff 6-1                            32
#7 Big Package 3-1                          32
#9 Grooms All Bizness 9-2             31
#5 Turn of Events 5-1                      31

Dirt Selections

#10 H P Moon 5-2
#1a Emerald Forest 8-1
#11 Twenty Four Mamba 6-1
#2 Doctor Jeff 6-1

Race 9:

#1a Loon Cry 6-5                            18 *Best Bet
#9 Snowy Evening 6-1                   16
#8 Cerretta 8-1                                15
#7 Mz Big Bucks 6-1                       15

Dirt Selections

#1a Loon Cry 6-5
#12 Midnite Confession 5-1
#1 Voleuse 6-5
#4 Graceful Rose 15-1

Belmont Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  5,4,3 5

Race 2:  2,4 Dirt: 6,5 6

Race 3:  5,2,3 x

Race 4:  7,3 Dirt: 9,2 9

Race 5:  5,8,7 Dirt: 9,11,1 x

$.50 Ticket:  $54

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  2,4,1,8 Dirt: 6,5,9,1 6

Race 3:  5,2,3,6 6

Race 4:  7,3,6,1 Dirt: 9,2,4,5 9

Race 5:  5,8 Dirt: 9,11 x

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 4 (3-6):

Race 3:  5,2,6 6

Race 4:  7,3,6 Dirt: 9,2,4 9

Race 5:  5,8,7,2 Dirt: 9,11,1,10 2

Race 6:  5,6 x

$.50 Ticket:  $36

Pick 6:

Race 4:  7,3,6 Dirt: 9,2,4 9

Race 5:  5,8,7 Dirt: 9 x

Race 6:  5,6 x

Race 7:  6,1,2

Race 8:  2,7 Dirt: 10,1a/1

Race 9:  1a/1 Dirt: 1a/1

$1.00 Ticket:  $108

Late Pick 5:

Race 5:  5,8,7,2 Dirt: 9 2

Race 6:  5,6,2,7 7

Race 7:  6,1,2

Race 8:  2,7 Dirt: 10,1a/1

Race 9:  1a/1,9 Dirt: 1a/12

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 6:  5,6,2,7 7

Race 7:  6,1,2,7

Race 8:  2,7,9,5 Dirt: 10,1a/1,11,2

Race 9:  1a/1,9 Dirt: 1a/1,12

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.