May 4th, 2025 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,963/23,031 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,649/23,031. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Sunday’s Full Card Aqueduct Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#1 Poppy’s Ticket 5-2 16 3rd $3.30
#3 Tiote 6-5 15
#6 Terminal Velocity 6-1 14 4th
#4 College Hunk 15-1 13

Race 2:

#6 Bendoog 7-5 35 1st $2.90
#4 Classic Catch 7-2 34 3rd $2.70
#2 General Banker 5-1 33 4th
#1 Otello 9-2 32 scratched

Race 3:

#3 Love Appeals 5-2 34 4th
#2 Buttercream Babe 9-2 33 scratched
#5 Dontlookbackatall 9-5 32
#1 Weehawken 12-1 31

Dirt Selections

#8 Save Us Melania 8-5
#7 On Command 10-1
#3 Love Appeals 5-2

Race 4:

#2 Uncatalyzed (GB) 2-1 20 1st $5.30
#6 Noble Confessor 1-1 20 2nd $2.10
#1 Freedom Glider 6-1 19 scratched
#10 Just Bernie 30-1 18

Dirt Selections

#6 Noble Confessor 1-1
#11 Summit Ridge 6-5
#7 Spun 30-1
#12 Aerate 8-1

Race 5:

#5 General Partner 7-5 34 4th
#2 Strapped 8-1 32 3rd $7.40
#3 Pirate 9-2 31 scratched
#7 Holiday Pay 10-1 30 2nd $8.10

Race 6:

#8 Felix 3-1 33 1st $11.20
#3 Works for Me 5-2 32 2nd $2.80 Ex $29.80
#1 Boltage 8-1 32
#4 Cigarette Boat 9-2 31 4th

Dirt Selections

#9 Toxic Gray 2-1
#3 Works for Me 5-2
#10 What’s Up Bro 4-1
#12 Bramito 8-1
#2 Alder

Race 7:

#5 Haulin Ice 5-2 37 1st $6.00 Dbl $31.80
#1 R Disaster 5-1 36 2nd $4.60 Ex $25.40
#2 Almostgone Rocket 2-1 35
#4 St. Benedicts Prep 6-1 34 4th

Race 8:

#5 No Mo Candy 9-2 36 scratched
#9 Spaliday 8-1 36
#7 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 7-2 35 1st $9.00
#1 Grayosh 3-1 34 4th

Dirt Selections

#5 No Mo Candy
#10 Amanda’s Folly
#3 Edict (ARG) 20-1

Race 9:

#1 Bishops Bay 2-1 38 1st $5.00
#7 Quint’s Brew 5-2 37 2nd $2.70 Ex $10.60
#2 Bank Frenzy 3-1 36 4th
#5 Worcester 8-1 35

Race 10:

#5 Train the Trainer 4-5 19 1st $3.20
#7 Come Full Circle 20-1 17
#8 Merica’s Back 3-1 16 2nd $3.40
#1 Executive Style 12-1 15

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 1,3

Race 2: 6,4,2

Race 3: 3,2,5 Dirt: 8,7,3

Race 4: 2,6 Dirt: 6,11

Race 5: 5,2,3,7

$.50 Ticket: $72

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 6,4

Race 3: 3,2,5,1 Dirt: 8,7,3

Race 4: 2,6,1 Dirt: 6,11,7

Race 5: 5,2,3

$.50 Ticket: $36

Pick 5 (3-7):

Race 3: 3,2,5 Dirt: 8,7,3

Race 4: 2,6 Dirt: 6,11

Race 5: 5,2,3

Race 6: 8,3 Dirt: 9,3

Race 7: 5,1,2

$.50 Ticket: $54

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 2,6 Dirt: 6,11

Race 5: 5,2,3,7

Race 6: 8,3,1,4 Dirt: 9,3,10,12

Race 7: 5,1,2,4

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 5: 5,2,3

Race 6: 8,3 Dirt: 9,3

Race 7: 5

Race 8: 5,9,7 Dirt: 5,10,3

Race 9: 1,7

Race 10: 5

$1.00 Ticket: $36

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 8,3 Dirt: 9,3

Race 7: 5,1,2

Race 8: 5,9,7,1 Dirt: 5,10,3

Race 9: 1,7,2

Race 10: 5,7,8

$.50 Ticket: $108 $290.50

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 5,1,2

Race 8: 5,9,7,1 Dirt: 5,10,3

Race 9: 1,7,2

Race 10: 5,7,8

$.50 Ticket: $54 $56.62

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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