November 30th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,344/22,056 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 10,165/22,056. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues will post Picks/Plays when able…

Happy Thanksgiving!!

*6 on top winners 11/17 at Aqueduct…$7.60…$4.00…$8.30…$2.70…$35.20…$10.80

*Early & Late Pick 5/4’s & Pick 6 for us as well 11/17 at Aqueduct…

*Pick 6 $4,302 on a $81 ticket…

*Early Pick 5 $598.25 on a $108 ticket…Late Pick 5 $841.75 on a $144 ticket…

*Early Pick 4 $133 on a $48 ticket…Late Pick 4 $203.50 on a $64 ticket…

*Early Pick 5 for us last Friday at Aqueduct…$295.25 on a $54 ticket…

*Early & Late Pick 5 for us last Sunday at Aqueduct…

*Early Pick 5 $165.25 on a $72 ticket…Late Pick 5 $348.75 on a $108 ticket…

*$40.70 on top winner for us Thursday at Churchill Downs…

*6 on top winners yesterday at Churchill Downs…

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#7 Tiz the Prince 9-5 14 2nd $2.10
#2 Janssen 8-5 13 1st $6.40
#3 Landauer 3-1 12 3rd $2.40
#4 Dream Alliance 12-1 11

Race 2:

#5 York Tavern 5-2 27 2nd $3.00
#1 Hours in a Day 9-5 26 1st $6.90 Ex $21.80
#4 Conniving 7-2 26 4th
#2 Puff’smagicdragon 6-1 25

Race 3:

#1 Letter Perfect 5-1 16
#7 Coach Pitino 5-2 15 scratched
#6 Elvis Himself 7-2 15 2nd $3.30
#3 He Has It All 3-1 14 1st $6.90

Race 4:

#3 Runamor 8-1 15
#1 Trinity River 5-2 14 4th
#8 Tap It Easy 9-2 13 2nd $3.90
#2 New Matthew 7-2 12 1st $7.80

Race 5:

#6 She’s Cool 3-1 27 scratched
#1 Snappin Buttons 2-1 27 2nd $2.70
#2 Bella Voce 4-1 26
#4 Diamond Status 10-1 25

Race 6:

#2 Royal Event 6-1 16
#8 Take Me to Londyn 3-1 16 1st $3.60
#7 Awesome Roberta 8-1 15 2nd $6.30
#3 Giant’s Audible 4-1 14 3rd $3.20

Race 7:

#8 Vettriano 4-5 34 scratched
#3 Stolen Magic 6-1 31 1st $7.50
#6 Iridescent 15-1 30 scratched
#7 Crazy Mason 8-1 30 4th

Race 8:

#10 Whatchatalkinabout 7-5 33 2nd $2.60
#3 Yo Banana Boy 8-1 31 4th
#1 Quiet Wisdom 8-1 31
#7 Caldo Candy 6-1 30

Race 9:

#3 Alpine Princess 7-5 34 2nd $2.20
#5 Life Talk 4-1 33 4th
#7 Scalable 5-1 32 3rd $2.70
#6 Audacious 8-1 31 scratched

Race 10:

#3 Smile Mon 2-1 33 scratched
#4 Striking Sparks 6-1 32 4th
#9 The Monopoly Man 15-1 30
#6 Sorority Prank 12-1 30 2nd $34.20

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 7,2,3

Race 2: 5,1

Race 3: 1,7,6,3 *7 scratched using 1,6,3,2

Race 4: 3,1,8,2

Race 5: 6,1 *6 scratched using 1,2

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 5,1

Race 3: 1,7,6,3 *7 scratched using 1,6,3,2

Race 4: 3,1,8,2

Race 5: 6,1,2,4 *6 scratched using 1,2,4,5

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 3,1,8,2

Race 5: 6,1 *6 scratched using 1,2

Race 6: 2,8,7,3

Race 7: 8,3,6,7 *8,6 scratched using 3,7,2,4

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 5: 6,1,2 *6 scratched using 1,2,4

Race 6: 2,8

Race 7: 8 *8 scratched using 3

Race 8: 10,3

Race 9: 3,5

Race 10: 3,4,9,6 *3 scratched using 4,9,6,10

$1.00 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 2,8,7,3

Race 7: 8,3 *8 scratched using 3,7

Race 8: 10,3,1,7

Race 9: 3,5,7

Race 10: 3,4 *3 scratched using 4,9

$.50 Ticket: $96

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 8,3,6,7 *8,6 scratched using 3,7,2,4

Race 8: 10,3,1,7

Race 9: 3,5

Race 10: 3,4,9,6 *3 scratched using 4,9,6,10

$.50 Ticket: $64

Churchill Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#9 Sycamore Shoals 7-2 19 3rd $2.46
#2 Chasten 8-5 18 1st $8.20
#4 Stay Classy 5-1 18
#5 Banking Silver 8-1 17

Race 2:

#3 Running Away 3-1 18 1st $4.00
#11 Pretty Tapit 20-1 17
#8 Dawn After Dawn 6-1 16
#1 Tiger Division 5-1 16 scratched

Race 3:

#7 Sweet Note 7-2 29 3rd $2.96
#6 Quantum Burst 3-1 29 2nd $4.28
#4 Book’em 2-1 28 1st $3.94 Tri $42.48
#1 Quinn’s Promise 12-1 27

Race 4:

#8 Good Conduct 9-5 18 2nd $2.70
#12 Chere Amia 6-1 17 4th
#7 Birkin Girl 15-1 16 1st $31.92
#2 Take Note of This 5-2 15

Race 5:

#7 Patch Adams 8-5 20 1st $3.16
#8 Traitour 20-1 19
#5 Zat’s the One 5-1 18
#1 Faust 8-1 18 scratched

Race 6:

#7 Keep It Easy 3-1 30 1st $7.38 Dbl $16.42
#1 Tough Catch 8-5 29 2nd $2.38 Ex $17.24
#4 Wisconsin Gal 5-1 28
#2 Glean 7-2 27 3rd $2.84

Race 7:

#5 Disco Time 8-5 31 1st $3.26 Dbl $12.50
#9 Lil Muggs 3-1 30 3rd $2.72 Pk 3 $33.92
#7 McKellen 8-1 29 2nd $6.32 Tri $67.80
#1 Hedge 12-1 28 4th Spr $409.80

Race 8:

#6 Power of Will 4-1 18
#10 Anegada 5-1 17 3rd $2.88
#3 Hard as Life 7-2 16 1st $15.54
#4 Ornato 12-1 16

Race 9:

#3 Good Cheer 4-5 34 1st $3.32
#4 Quietside 3-1 32 2nd $3.28 Ex $16.68
#1 Eclatant 5-2 31 3rd $2.32
#7 Flash Wear 20-1 30

Race 10:

#9 Impulse Buy 5-2 33 1st $6.54 Dbl $14.36
#1 Echo Sound 2-1 32 2nd $3.54 Ex $17.54
#5 Praying 12-1 31
#4 Shisospicy 9-2 30 3rd $2.54

Race 11:

#2 Jonathan’s Way 5-2 34 2nd $2.56
#8 First Resort 9-2 33 1st $14.66 Ex $34.72
#5 Filoso 8-1 32
#1 He’s Not Joking 8-1 31

Race 12:

#3 Limited Edition 7-2 18 scratched
#9 Burnham Square 15-1 17 3rd $6.38
#4 Kalahari Dreams 3-1 17 2nd $3.32
#2 Game Day 20-1 16 scratched

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 9,2,4,5

Race 2: 3,11,8,1 *1 scratched using 3,11,8,6

Race 3: 7,6,4

Race 4: 8,12,7,2

Race 5: 7

$.50 Ticket: $96 $554.77

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,11,8,1 *1 scratched using 3,11,8,6

Race 3: 7,6,4

Race 4: 8,12,7,2

Race 5: 7,8,5,1 *1 scratched using 7,8,5,2

$.50 Ticket: $96 $122.78

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 8,12,7,2 7

Race 5: 7,8,5,1 *1 scratched using 7,8,5,2 7

Race 6: 7,1 7

Race 7: 5,9 5

Race 8: 6,10,3,4 3

$.50 Ticket: $128 $1,523.85

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 7,8,5,1 *1 scratched using 7,8,5,2 7

Race 6: 7,1,4,2 7

Race 7: 5,9 5

Race 8: 6,10,3,4 3

$.50 Ticket: $64 $79.80

Pick 5 (6-10):

Race 6: 7,1,4,2

Race 7: 5,9

Race 8: 6,10,3

Race 9: 3,4,1

Race 10: 9,1,5,4

$.50 Ticket: $144 $273

Pick 6:

Race 7: 5,9

Race 8: 6,10,3

Race 9: 3,4,1

Race 10: 9,1,5,4

Race 11: 2,8,5

Race 12: 3,9,4 *3 scratched using 9,4,5

$.20 Ticket: $129.60

Late Pick 5:

Race 8: 6,10,3,4

Race 9: 3,4,1

Race 10: 9,1,5,4

Race 11: 2,8,5

Race 12: 3,9,4 *3 scratched using 9,4,5

$.50 Ticket: $216

Late Pick 4:

Race 9: 3,4

Race 10: 9,1,5,4

Race 11: 2,8,5,1

Race 12: 3,9,4,2 *3,2 scratched using 9,4,5,7

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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