A Winning Day at the Races!

October 1st, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,398/17,374, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 7,848/17,374. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#2 Downtown Mischief 4-1           19 scratched
#1 Pretty Miss Keens 4-1               18 3rd $3.50
#3 Miss Fashionista 5-2                 17 4th
#6 Vax 9-2                                         16

Race 2:

#7 Hola Gata 6-1                             19
#5 Justifiable Belle 7-2                   18
#8 Idea Generation (IRE) 7-2        18
#3 Nyxed 10-1                                  17

Dirt Selections

#9 River Oaks 8-1 3rd $3.00
#3 Nyxed 10-1
#5 Justifiable Belle 7-2
#2 Junipermarshmallow 12-1 scratched

Race 3:

#2 Lost in Rome 2-1                        27 2nd $2.60
#1 Runabout 9-2                              26 1st $8.40 Ex $18.40
#4 Tapizearance 3-1                        26 3rd $2.50 Tri $38
#3 Our Philly Special 5-2                25 scratched

Race 4:

#2 Bees and Honey 2-1                   33 1st $6.60
#4 Brattle House 1-1                       32 2nd $2.20 Ex $10.60
#1 Halo City 10-1                             29 3rd $2.30 Tri $20.60
#5 Vegas Weekend 9-2                    28 4th Spr $41.60

Race 5:

#4 Limits of Power 4-1                    20 4th
#2 Inflationary 7-2                           19 scratched
#1 Cascais 8-1                                   18 3rd $3.30
#6 Town Square 8-1                         17

Race 6:

#4 Frank’s Art 5-2                             29
#12 War Terminator 7-2                   28
#7 Sheriff Bianco 5-1                        28
#10 Courageoous Oh La 10-1          27

Dirt Selections

#6 Bold Journey 10-1
#15 Storm Shooter 7-2 3rd $4.60
#14 Fenway 6-1
#1 Hudson Overpass 50-1 scratched

Race 7:

#1 Life Is Good 1-9                           43 1st $2.10
#5 Informative 15-1                         37
#3 Thomas Shelby 15-1                   35 scratched
#2 Law Professor 8-1                        34 2nd $3.90

Race 8:

#3 Pleasant Passage 8-1                  30 1st $21.20 Dbl $21.60
#6 Be Your Best (IRE) 6-5                29 3rd $2.30
#2 Free Look 9-5                                29 2nd $3.10 Tri $119
#1 Goerges Spirit 10-1                      28

Dirt Selections

#2 Free Look 9-5
#3 Pleasant Passage 8-1
#5 Im Just Kiddin 12-1
#1 Georges Spirit 10-1

Race 9:

#10 Dancing Buck 6-1                      34 1st $10.60 Dbl $126
#7 Thin White Duke 9-2                  33 Pk 3 $158
#1 Noble Emotion 20-1                    32 scratched
#3 Nothing Better 12-1                    31 scratched

Dirt Selections

#10 Dancing Buck 6-1
#13 Greeley and Ben 3-1
#7 Thin White Duke 9-2
#6 Voodoo Zip 9-2

Race 10:

#4 Champions Dream 5-1               32
#6 Gulfport 2-1                                  32 3rd $2.50
#3 Verifying 9-5                                 31 2nd $5.00
#1 Andiamo a Firenze 6-1                31 4th

Race 11:

#9 Liberty Flame 12-1                       28 scratched
#3 Kant Hurry Love 5-2                     27 2nd $4.40
#6 Carbon 5-1                                      27 3rd $6.10
#8 Ribot’s Valentine 4-1                    26 4th

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  2,1,3,6 *2 scratched using 1,3,6,4 4

Race 2:  7,5,8 Dirt: 9,3,5 x

Race 3:  2,1 1

Race 4:  2,4 2

Race 5:  4,2,1,6 *2 scratched using 4,1,6,8 8

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  7,5,8,3 Dirt: 9,3,5,2 x

Race 3:  2,1,4 1

Race 4:  2,4 2

Race 5:  4,2,1,6 *2 scratched using 4,1,6,8 8

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Pick 5:

Race 4:  2,4,1,5 2

Race 5:  4,2,1 *2 scratched using 4,1,6 x

Race 6:  4,12,7 Dirt: 6,15,14 x

Race 7:  1

Race 8:  3,6,2,1 Dirt: 2,3,5,1 3

$.50 Ticket:  $72

Pick 6:

Race 6:  4,12,7 Dirt: 6,15,14 x

Race 7:  1

Race 8:  3,6,2 Dirt: 2,3,5 3

Race 9:  10,7 Dirt: 10,13 10

Race 10: 4,6,3 x

Race 11:  9,3,6 *9 scratched using 3,6,8

$1.00 Ticket:  $162

Late Pick 5:

Race 7:  1

Race 8:  3,6,2 Dirt: 2,3,5 3

Race 9:  10,7 Dirt: 10,13 10

Race 10: 4,6,3 x

Race 11:  9,3,6 *9 scratched using 3,6,8

$.50 Ticket:  $27

Late Pick 4:

Race 8:  3,6,2,1 Dirt: 2,3,5,1 3

Race 9:  10,7,1,3 Dirt: 10,13,7,6 10

Race 10: 4,6,3 x

Race 11:  9,3,6,8

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Churchill Downs Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#5 Thach 8-5                                 12 2nd $2.56
#3 Little Red Rifle 8-1                 11
#6 Command Central 5-2           10
#1 Hey Boss 8-1                              9 1st $9.30

Race 2:

#6 Minute Waltz 2-1                    28 1st $4.92
#3 Comedy Act 5-2                       27 4th
#1 Shaniah 3-1                              26 2nd $3.90
#2 Shell Shock 5-1                        25

Race 3:

#11 Twelve Sharp 10-1                 15
#4 Cupids Payday 5-1                   14 1st $13.38
#6 Ms Hayley 5-1                           14
#3 Tenacious Lady 10-1                13 3rd $5.04

Race 4:

#4 Runaway Magic 2-1                 28 2nd $2.56
#5 Undecoded 7-2                          27
#1 West Warpath 8-1                     26
#2 American Pure 3-1                    26 3rd $2.86

Race 5:

#10 Tapit’s Conquest 5-2              19 1st $5.60
#2 Prairie Dunes 3-1                      18 4th
#3 No Easy Days 15-1                     17
#5 Denington 7-2                            16

Race 6:

#6 Kavod 5-2                                    31 scratched
#2 Surveillance 3-1                         30 2nd $2.58
#4 O Besos 9-5                                 29 1st $3.56
#3 My Man Flintstone 12-1           28

Race 7:

#7 Curlins Incharge 10-1                19
#8 Desert Wolf 9-2                           18 2nd $4.14
#4 Game Warden 6-1                       17
#6 Recker Point 4-1                          17

Race 8:

#7 Strong Quality 7-2                      33 2nd $3.94
#1 Tepeu 3-1                                      32 4th
#4 The Prince’s Spur 10-1               31
#3 Tiz Rye Time 12-1                       30 3rd $5.16

Race 9:

#3 Fulsome 5-1                                 38
#10 Twilight Blue 12-1                    37
#2 Untreated 9-2                               36
#1 Speaker’s Corner 1-1                   36

Race 10:

#3 Happy Saver 5-2                          44 4th
#2 Art Collector 2-1                         42
#1 King Fury 15-1                             40 3rd
#5 Hot Rod Charlie 8-5                    38 1st

Race 11:

#7 Scarlet Stripe 5-2                         18 2nd $4.10
#3 One Time Mo 8-1                         18 3rd $2.98
#6 Bidofhoney 12-1                           17 scratched
#11 Delightof the Nile 10-1             16

Churchill Downs Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  5,3,6,1 1

Race 2:  6,3,1 6

Race 3:  11,4,6,3 4

Race 4:  4,5 x

Race 5:  10,2 10

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  6,3,1,2 6

Race 3:  11,4,6,3 4

Race 4:  4,5,1 x

Race 5:  10,2 10

$.50 Ticket:  $48

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4:  4,5,1,2 x

Race 5:  10,2 10

Race 6:  6,2,4 8 *6 scratched using 2,4,3 4

Race 7:  7,8,4,6 x

Race 8:  7,1 x

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5:  10,2,3,5 10

Race 6:  6,2,4 *6 scratched using 2,4,3 4

Race 7:  7,8,4,6 x

Race 8:  7,1,4,3 x

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Pick 6:

Race 6:  6,2,4 *6 scratched using 2,4,3 4

Race 7:  7,8,4,6 x

Race 8:  7,1,4,3 x

Race 9:  3,10,2,1 x

Race 10: 3,2 x

Race 11:  7,3

$.20 Ticket:  $153.60

Late Pick 5:

Race 7:  7,8,4,6 x

Race 8:  7,1,4,3 x

Race 9:  3,10,2,1 x

Race 10: 3,2 x

Race 11:  7,3,6 *6 scratched using 7,3,11

$.50 Ticket:  $192

Late Pick 4:

Race 8:  7,1,4,3 x

Race 9:  3,10,2,1 x

Race 10: 3,2 x

Race 11:  7,3,6,11 *6 scratched using 7,3,11,12

$.50 Ticket:  $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 


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