September 17th, 2017 Free Picks & Plays

• September 16, 2017
• Free Picks & Plays
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*Free picks will appear in this space daily, to get full card picks and plays, comments, and stakes analysis, please visit the member area.

*Updated Stats as of 9/10, since website was launched last July :

• Winner in top three picks 67% of the time 2140/3196.
• Top Choice finishing 1st or 2nd 44% of the time 1416/3196.

Belmont Selections

Race 1 :           Strength Variable :

#3 Paid Admission 4-1                       26
#4 Match Up 3-1                                  25
#6 John’s Island 9-5                            24
#2 Are We Not Men 6-1                      22

Race 3 :

#5 Special Jo 4-1                                   26
#4 Old Upstart 8-1                                25
#2 Saratoga Wildcat 3-1                      23
#7 Nominal Dollars 12-1                     20

Race 6 :

#4 Avast Matey 3-1                                28
#7 Combat Controller 6-1                     27
#8 Holding Aces 5-2                               27
#6 Top Fortitude 7-2                               25

Race 8 :

#2 Nevisian Sky 2-1                                29
#9 Yummy Bear 12-1                              26
#8 With Exultation 8-1                          24
#12 Wicked Freud 8-1                             22

Belmont Late Pick 4 :

Race 7 :  2,7,9,10

Race 8 :  2,9

Race 9 :  1a,3,2,5

Race 10 : 12,7,3,6

$.50 Ticket :  $64

Churchill Downs Selections

Race 1 :

#7 Sneaky Betty 3-1                                24
#3 Desert Poem 7-2                                 22
#4 She’s Got a Shot 7-2                           21
#2 Greeley and Ariana 6-1                      18

Race 4 :

#5 Perfect Movement 9-5                        24
#6 Benediction 5-2                                    22
#4 Tabaddol 7-2                                          20
#8 Dr. Philan 12-1                                       17

Race 7 :

#3 Funny Duck 3-1                                    22
#5 Promises Fulfilled 12-1                       21
#9 Title Ready 7-2                                      20
#12 Rubus 7-2                                              20

Race 8 :

#3 Paden 8-1                                                31
#8 Manhattan Mischief 5-1                       30
#5 Handiwork 6-1                                        29
#1 Fish Trappe Road 7-2                             28

Churchill Late Pick 4 :

Race 7 :  3,5,9,12

Race 8 :  3,8

Race 9 :  6,10,8,5

Race 10 : 12,13,6,10

$.50 Ticket : $64

* “Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by four, five or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.