A Winning Day at the Races!
September 17th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays
*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…
*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,330/17,272, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 7,799/17,272. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.
*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…
Aqueduct Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#8 A Royal Shin 6-1 17
#6 Souffle 9-5 17 4th
#9 Fleetfooted 8-1 16 1st $11.40
#4 Red Butterfly 6-1 16 2nd $13.20
Race 2:
#2 Bronx Bomber 9-5 29 4th
#6 Alcools 1-1 28 2nd $2.40
#4 Jemography 4-1 27 1st $9.70
#1 Long Term Thinking 10-1 26 3rd $3.90 Spr $85
Race 3:
#9 Aruba 5-1 19 4th
#1 Indemnify 7-5 19 3rd $2.20
#2 Bobbie D (IRE) 4-1 18
#10 Siege of Boston 5-1 17 2nd $6.50
Race 4:
#8 Its All Relevant 7-5 30 2nd $3.10
#1 Kumar 7-2 28
#5 Lil Commissioner 9-2 27
#6 Dark Storm 6-1 26 1st $20.00
Race 5:
#8 Amedeus Music 9-2 28
#5 Once a Giant 5-2 27 scratched
#3 Umbria 9-5 27 1st $3.70
#4 Lucky Brody 4-1 26
Race 6:
#4 Spun Special 8-1 19 *Best Bet 3rd $3.80
#3 Padma 9-5 19 1st $3.90
#8 Candy Strike 6-1 18
#5 Binsky 5-1 18
Race 7:
#4 Toskana Belle (FR) 7-2 34 2nd $3.10
#1 McKulick 4-5 33 1st $3.60
#6 Beside Herself 4-1 32 4th
#3 Canisy 8-1 31
Race 8:
#1 King Angelo 3-1 32 scratched
#8 Gianni Lambo 8-1 31 2nd $5.60
#3 Outlaw Kid 6-1 30 1st $10.20 Ex $84
#4 Phantom Smoke 7-2 30
Race 9:
#7 Expressman 2-5 34 2nd $2.20
#2 Mackillop 6-1 30
#5 Nabokov 6-1 29 1st $18.00
#3 Dot’s Dollar 15-1 28 4th
Race 10:
#3 Nations Pride 1-1 36 1st $3.10
#4 The Grey Wizard (IRE) 8-1 32 2nd $6.10 Ex $33.40
#1 Classic Causeway 2-1 32 3rd $2.40 Tri $92
#6 Ardakan (GB) 4-1 31 4th Spr $137
Race 11:
#4 Shinful 9-2 16 2nd $4.90
#8 Royal Dancer 7-5 16 1st $3.30 Ex $11
#9 Ard Macha 8-1 15 3rd $3.10 Tri $35.60
#2 Aleste 8-1 15 4th Spr $162.40
Aqueduct Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 8,6,9,4 9
Race 2: 2,6,4 4
Race 3: 9,1,2 x
Race 4: 8,1 x
Race 5: 8,5,3 *5 scratched using 8,3,4 3
$.50 Ticket: $108
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 2,6 x
Race 3: 9,1,2,10 x
Race 4: 8,1,5 x
Race 5: 8,5,3,4 *5 scratched using 8,3,4,7 3
$.50 Ticket: $48
Pick 5 (4-8):
Race 4: 8,1,5 x
Race 5: 8,5,3 *5 scratched using 8,3,4 3
Race 6: 4,3,8,5 *5 scratched using 4,3,8,7 3
Race 7: 4,1 1
Race 8: 1,8,3 *1 scratched using 8,3,4 3
$.50 Ticket: $108
Pick 6:
Race 6: 4,3,8,5 *5 scratched using 4,3,8,7 3
Race 7: 4,1 1
Race 8: 1,8,3 *1 scratched using 8,3,4 3
Race 9: 7 x
Race 10: 3 3
Race 11: 4,8,9,2 8
$1.00 Ticket: $72
Late Pick 5:
Race 7: 4,1,6 1
Race 8: 1,8,3,4 3
Race 9: 7,2 x
Race 10: 3,4 3
Race 11: 4,8,9,2 8
$.50 Ticket: $96
Late Pick 4:
Race 8: 1,8,3,4 3
Race 9: 7,2 x
Race 10: 3,4,1 3
Race 11: 4,8,9,2 8
$.50 Ticket: $48
Churchill Downs Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#4 Conspiracy Fact 6-1 15 4th
#5 Big Woo 6-1 14
#8 Star Entertainer 8-1 13 3rd $4.64
#9 Pistol Or Shotgun 9-2 13
Race 2:
#7 Peacock Lass 12-1 17 1st $14.46
#1 Comparative 5-2 16 3rd $3.84
#5 Tiny Temper 4-1 15 2nd $4.26 Tri $197.72
#10 Sweet Sweetfantasy 15-1 15
Race 3:
#5 Pledgeofallegiance 9-2 31 3rd $3.22
#1 Nepotism 3-1 29
#8 Miacomet 4-1 28
#7 Winterwood 12-1 27 1st $62.96
Race 4:
#9 Luv Dragon 7-2 19 4th
#10 Sinfiltre 3-1 18
#6 Beyond Perfection 12-1 16
#1 Sweet Lady Ivanka 4-1 15 3rd $4.12
Race 5:
#6 Kupp 8-1 20
#5 Loggins 3-1 20 1st $3.84
#10 Easy Action 10-1 19 2nd $5.22
#12 Create Trouble 6-1 18
Race 6:
#9 Pro Oxidant 5-1 31 4th
#12 Gulfstream Way 6-1 30 2nd $4.36
#11 Olliemeister 15-1 29
#1 Film Star 4-1 28 3rd $6.42
Race 7:
#4 Bell’s the One 6-5 35 1st $3.08
#5 Club Car 5-1 34 scratched
#2 Joyful Cadence 7-2 33 2nd
#1 Sconsin 8-5 33 3rd
Race 8:
#3 Crazy Beautiful 9-5 36 2nd $3.34
#5 Played Hard 2-1 35 1st $6.24 Ex $15.08
#2 Envoutante 5-2 34
#4 Li’l Tootsie 8-1 32 3rd $3.08
Race 9:
#9 Echo Again 2-1 33 *Best Bet
#3 Damon’s Mound 5-2 32
#5 Curly Jack 5-1 30 1st $23.66
#1 Hayes Strike 12-1 28 4th
Race 10:
#6 Isolate 7-5 37 2nd $3.20
#5 Miles Ahead 6-1 35 1st $7.46 Ex $24.24
#4 Necker Island 5-2 34 3rd $2.40 Tri $49.58
#2 A C Expressway 8-1 32
Race 11:
#3 Naughty Gal 5-1 31
#5 Grand Love 9-2 30 3rd $2.94
#9 Jet Setting 8-1 28
#11 Justa Warrior 4-1 28
Churchill Downs Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 4,5,8,9 x
Race 2: 7,1,5 7
Race 3: 5,1,8 x
Race 4: 9,10 x
Race 5: 6,5,10,12 5
$.50 Ticket: $144
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 7,1,5,10 7
Race 3: 5,1,8,7 7
Race 4: 9,10 x
Race 5: 6,5,10,12 5
$.50 Ticket: $64
Pick 5:
Race 4: 9,10,6,1 x
Race 5: 6,5,10,12 5
Race 6: 9,12,11,1 x
Race 7: 4 4
Race 8: 3,5 5
$.50 Ticket: $64
Pick 4 (5-8):
Race 5: 6,5,10,12 5
Race 6: 9,12,11,1 x
Race 7: 4,5 *5 scratched using 4,2 4
Race 8: 3,5,2 5
$.50 Ticket: $48
Pick 6:
Race 6: 9,12,11,1 x
Race 7: 4,5,2,1 4
Race 8: 3,5 5
Race 9: 9,3 x
Race 10: 6 x
Race 11: 3,5,9,11 x
$.20 Ticket: $51.20
Late Pick 5:
Race 7: 4,5,2,1 4
Race 8: 3,5,2 5
Race 9: 9,3 x
Race 10: 6,5 5
Race 11: 3,5,9 x
$.50 Ticket: $72
Late Pick 4:
Race 8: 3,5,2 5
Race 9: 9,3,5 5
Race 10: 6,5,4 5
Race 11: 3,5,9 x
$.50 Ticket: $40.50
“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.
Information and content on this website is for entertainment and information use only. Any reliance made on such information is at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy
