A Winning Day at the Races!

September 25th , 2021 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site five years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 67% of the time 9863/14984, and top choice first or second 44% of the time 6631/14984. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Through the Belmont Fall Meet Picks/Plays will be posted here on the Free Page weekdays, weekends will require the purchase of a One or Two Day/Weekend Pass…

*Prayers for everyone affected by this virus…

*Saturday’s Full Card Belmont Picks/Plays & Parx Stakes Below…

Belmont Selections

Race 1 :  Strength Variable :

#5 Nostalgic 4-1                         19 scratched
#2 Sea Pines 9-2                         18 4th
#4 Nest 3-1                                  17 1st $3.90
#1 Dover Dreams 5-2                 17 2nd $3.30

Race 2 :

#5 Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) 3-1      29
#4 Qian B C 12-1                          28
#1 Life On Top 7-2                       27
#2 Front Man 8-1                         27

Dirt Selections

#1a Striking Speed 7-2
#8 My First Grammy 5-2 2nd $3.60
#11 F F Rocket 7-2 1st $10.60
#12 Rocco Strong 12-1 3rd $3.80

Race 3 :

#2 Notorious Flirt 5-2                  30
#3 Quickflash 4-1                          29 4th
#7 Him She Kisses 8-1                  28
#5 Seven Lilies 9-5                         28 3rd $3.30

Race 4 :

#2 Life Is Good 1-9                        42 1st $2.10
#1 Fort Peck 15-1                           34 2nd $6.10
#3 Chance It 4-1                             33 Ex $13.40
#5 Doubly Blessed 10-1                 31 3rd

Race 5 :

#2 Union Gables 12-1                    31
#10 Gotta Go Mo 3-1                     30 4th
#4 Miss J McKay 2-1                       29
#8 Tiple (IRE) 12-1                         29

Dirt Selections

#11 Shesalittle Edgy 7-2
#6 Time Limit 7-2
#9 Secondary Market 9-5
#1 Hydra 15-1

Race 6 :

#2 Ocean’s Reserve 10-1               17 scratched
#8 Overstep 5-2                              16 1st $3.50
#4 Tap’n de Bank 7-2                     15
#9 Asymmetric 7-2                         15 2nd $4.10

Race 7 :

#5 Opry 9-2                                     33
#3 Price Talk 8-1                            32 1st $8.10
#10 Zarkallani (FR) 6-1                 31
#2 Shamrocket 2-1                         31 3rd $2.50

Dirt Selections

#9 Backsideofthemoon 5-2
#11 Zoomer 6-1
#6 You’re to Blame 7-5
#1 Journeyman 15-1
#8 Liveyourbeastlife 10-1

Race 8 :

#8 In a Hurry 4-1                           32 1st $8.90
#10 Clara Peeters (GB) 3-1           31 3rd $2.40
#3 Saratoga Affair 9-2                   31
#4 Kitten by the Sea 6-1               30

Race 9 :

#8 Hot Rod Rumble 12-1               16 2nd $7.00
#1 Pursuit of Justice 20-1              15
#4 Iron Lion in Zion 6-1                15
#5 Happy Happy B 9-5                   15 scratched

Race 10 :

#4 Pocket Square (GB) 3-5             36 1st
#1 Lake Lucerne 5-1                        33 3rd
#2 Miss Teheran (IRE) 9-5             32 2nd
#5 Stand for the Flag 20-1             30

Race 11 :

#7 Road to Remember 10-1            15
#4 She’s the One 7-2                        15
#3 Saratoga Gaze 8-1                       14
#11 U Should B Dancing 5-2           14

Dirt Selections

#10 Vivazano 12-1
#5 Sinfully Sweet 8-1
#12 Live in Five 2-1
#13 Madame Rose 20-1

Belmont Plays

Early Pick 5 :

Race 1 :  5,2,4,1 4

Race 2 :  5,4,1 Dirt : 1a,8,11 11

Race 3 :  2,3,7 x

Race 4 :  2 2

Race 5 :  2,10,4 Dirt : 11,6,9 x

$.50 Ticket :  $54

Early Pick 4 :

Race 2 :  5,4,1,2 Dirt : 1a,8,11,12 11

Race 3 :  2,3,7 x

Race 4 :  2,1 2

Race 5 :  2,10,4 x

$.50 Ticket :  $36

Pick 5 (4-8) :

Race 4 :  2,1,3 2

Race 5 :  2,10,4 Dirt : 11,6,9 x

Race 6 :  2,8,4 *2 scratched using 8,4,9 8

Race 7 :  5,3,10 Dirt : 9,11,6 3

Race 8 :  8,10,3 8

$.50 Ticket :  $121.50

Pick 6 :

Race 6 :  2,8,4 *2 scratched using 8,4,9 8

Race 7 :  5,3,10 Dirt : 9,11,6 3

Race 8 :  8,10 8

Race 9 :  8,1,4 x

Race 10 : 4

Race 11 :  7,4 Dirt : 10,5

$1.00 Ticket :  $108

Late Pick 5 :

Race 7 :  5,3,10,2 Dirt : 9,11,6 3

Race 8 :  8,10,3 8

Race 9 :  8,1,4,5 x

Race 10 : 4

Race 11 : 7,4,3,11 Dirt : 10,5,12,13

$.50 Ticket :  $96

Late Pick 4 :

Race 8 :  8,10,3,4 8

Race 9 :  8,1,4,5 x

Race 10 : 4,1,2

Race 11 :  7,4,3 Dirt : 10,5,12

$.50 Ticket :  $72

Parx Stakes Selections

Race 6 :  Strength Variable :

#6 Chub Wagon 8-5                      37 1st $4.20
#7 Marion Francis 6-1                  33 3rd $2.80
#1 Vault 5-2                                    33 2nd $3.00
#5 Trolley Ride 6-1                        31 Tri $30

Race 7 :

#6 Silver State 8-5                        37 2nd $2.40
#2 West Will Power 5-1               34
#1 Dreams Untold 8-1                 32
#4 Thorny Tale 6-1                       31

Race 8 :

#5 Shooger Ray Too 8-1               34
#8 Sea Foam 8-1                            33
#3 Moretti 2-1                                32
#6 Lookin At Roses 8-1                 31 4th

Race 9 :

#9 Battle Station 8-1                      36
#4 Carotari 9-2                                35
#5 Firecrow 7-2                                34 4th
#8 Caravel 9-5                                  34

Race 10 :

#7 Jackie’s Warrior 4-5                   42 1st $2.10
#6 Beren 6-1                                     34
#4 Pickin’ Time 10-1                       33 2nd $5.40
#1 Real talk 5-1                                 31 3rd $2.40

Race 11 :

#5 Army Wife 7-2                             35 3rd $2.80
#6 Clairiere 2-1                                 34 1st $7.20
#4 Maracuja 8-1                                33 4th
#7 Private Mission 9-2                     32

Race 12 :

#8 Midnight Bourbon 5-1                43 2nd
#4 Weyburn 12-1                               40
#7 Hot Rod Charlie 5-2                     39 1st
#6 Bourbonic 12-1                             37

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 

 

 

 


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