A Winning Day at the Races!
November 26th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays
*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…
*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,635/17,767, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 8047/17,767. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.
*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…
Happy Thanksgiving!!
Aqueduct Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#4 Britney Is Free 8-1 12
#3 Bernt Again 4-1 11 3rd $3.00
#8 Amanda’s Folly 5-1 11 2nd $3.30
#6 Caribbean Breeze 5-2 10 scratched
Race 2:
#2 Royal Tryst 9-2 29 4th
#3 Patient Capital 2-1 29 1st $6.30
#7 Relate 5-2 28
#4 Holy Matrimony 6-1 27 2nd $8.60
Race 3:
#8 Baba 4-1 28 2nd $6.10
#7 Customerexperience 5-2 27 4th
#6 Mon Petit Chou 9-2 27 3rd $4.70
#2 Hydra 4-1 26
Race 4:
#2 Life Changer 5-2 32 2nd $3.70
#1 Luni Sima 5-1 31
#4 Up to the Mark 8-5 31 4th
#3 Reggae Music Man 3-1 30 1st $10.20
Race 5:
#7 Dandy Handyman 6-1 30 2nd $6.70
#10 General Jim 7-2 29 3rd $2.60
#3 Liar’s Poker 8-1 29
#8 Dr. Settle’s Dream 12-1 28
Race 6:
#8 Agility 3-1 28 2nd $4.10
#7 Victory Built 3-1 28 1st $11.60 Ex $35.40
#2 Breaking Stones 5-2 27 4th
#1 Athenry 6-1 27
Race 7:
#6 Photon 8-5 19 2nd $2.50
#1 Bavarian Creme 4-1 17 3rd $3.00
#10 Lem Me Drink 12-1 16 4th
#4 Yogi 10-1 15
Race 8:
#7 Runninsonofagun 2-1 36 *Best Bet 2nd $3.00
#2 Jaxon Traveler 6-1 34 4th
#6 Factor It In 3-1 34 3rd $2.50
#5 Synthesis 5-1 33
Race 9:
#6 Mooney Love (IRE) 12-1 35
#9 Soldier Rising (GB) 5-2 35
#3 Bathus (IRE) 9-2 34
#1 Highest Honors 5-1 33 2nd $5.80
Race 10:
#10 East Coast Girl 8-1 19
#1 Mariachi 8-5 19 1st $3.80
#2 Victory Money 5-1 18
#5 Mama’s Gold 8-1 17
Aqueduct Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 4,3,8,6 *6 scratched using 4,3,8,5 x
Race 2: 2,3,7 3
Race 3: 8,7 x
Race 4: 2,1,4 x
Race 5: 7,10,3 x
$.50 Ticket: $108
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 2,3,7,4 3
Race 3: 8,7,6 x
Race 4: 2,1,4 x
Race 5: 7,10,3 x
$.50 Ticket: $108
Pick 4 (4-7):
Race 4: 2,1,4,3 3
Race 5: 7,10,3,8 x
Race 6: 8,7,2 7
Race 7: 6,1,10 x
$.50 Ticket: $72
Pick 6:
Race 5: 7,10,3 x
Race 6: 8,7,2 7
Race 7: 6 x
Race 8: 7 x
Race 9: 6,9,3 x
Race 10: 10,1,2
$1.00 Ticket: $81
Late Pick 5:
Race 6: 8,7,2,1 7
Race 7: 6,1 x
Race 8: 7,2,6 x
Race 9: 6,9,3 x
Race 10: 10,1,2
$.50 Ticket: $108
Late Pick 4:
Race 7: 6,1,10,4 x
Race 8: 7,2,6 x
Race 9: 6,9,1,3 x
Race 10: 10,1,2,5
Churchill Downs Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#5 Shopper’s Revenge 6-1 19 2nd $8.88
#7 Prairie Dunes 7-2 18
#4 Desert Wolf 4-1 18 4th
#3 Sense You Asked 15-1 17
Race 2:
#12 Theroanrunner 5-2 18
#5 Towhead 7-2 17 1st $8.16
#7 Comparative 9-2 16 4th
#3 Roses and Rozay 6-1 16
Race 3:
#4 Two Eagles River 4-1 30 2nd $3.28
#5 Joking Way 2-1 29 4th
#2 Victory Formation 9-5 28 1st $4.74
#1 Welaka 12-1 27
Race 4:
#12 Poblano 4-1 19 2nd $4.76
#11 Vahva 7-2 18 1st $5.00 Ex $22.86
#10 Bru Na Boinne 5-1 18 4th
#6 Medaglia Forever 12-1 17
Race 5:
#7 Point Proven 5-1 18 1st $6.50
#9 Spielman 7-2 18 4th
#4 Hard to Come By 8-1 17
#2 Escapologist 5-1 17 3rd $4.08
Race 6:
#5 Worthington 3-1 29 1st $9.10 Dbl $28.32
#10 Deer District 5-2 28 3rd $2.40
#1 Good Heart 7-2 27
#3 Mendel’s Secret 5-1 26 2nd $6.28
Race 7:
#2 The Great Maybe 4-1 31
#3 Key of Life 1-1 31 3rd $2.10
#6 Red Carpet Ready 7-2 30 1st $16.84
#4 Twirled 3-1 29 2nd $5.42
Race 8:
#4 Must Be the Money 10-1 29
#5 Hit Show 3-1 28 4th
#7 Rocket Can 7-2 28 2nd $4.92
#2 Highway Robber 10-1 27
Race 9:
#5 Powerful 5-2 29 1st $7.16
#3 Mr Bob 5-1 28 2nd $4.78 Ex $31.32
#7 Mounsieur Coco 6-1 27
#2 Bourbon Bash 5-1 27
Race 10:
#1 Pretty Mischievous 5-2 30 3rd $3.20
#3 American Rockette 10-1 29
#8 Pure Pauline 15-1 28 4th
#4 Hoosier Philly 1-1 28 1st $2.96
Race 11:
#8 Instant Coffee 5-2 33
#9 Cyclone Mischief 8-1 32
#1 Curly Jack 3-1 32
#6 Freedom Trail 6-1 31
Race 12:
#11 Mobster 5-1 19
#5 Midnight Pranks 10-1 18
#2 King d’Oro 8-1 17
#9 Winger 10-1 17
Churchill Downs Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 5,7,4 x
Race 2: 12,5,7 5
Race 3: 4,5,2 2
Race 4: 12,11,10 11
Race 5: 7,9 7
$.50 Ticket: $81
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 12,5,7,3 5
Race 3: 4,5,2 2
Race 4: 12,11,10 11
Race 5: 7,9,4 7
$.50 Ticket: $54 $67.53
Pick 5 (5-9):
Race 5: 7,9,4,2 7
Race 6: 5,10,1 5
Race 7: 2,3 x
Race 8: 4,5,7
Race 9: 5,3,7
$.50 Ticket: $108
Pick 4 (6-9):
Race 6: 5,10,1 5
Race 7: 2,3,6,4 6
Race 8: 4,5,7 x
Race 9: 5,3,7,2
$.50 Ticket: $72
Pick 6:
Race 7: 2,3,6,4 6
Race 8: 4,5,7 x
Race 9: 5,3,7 5
Race 10: 1,3,8 x
Race 11: 8,9
Race 12: 11,5,2
$.20 Ticket: $129.60
Late Pick 5:
Race 8: 4,5,7 x
Race 9: 5,3,7,2 5
Race 10: 1,3,8,4 4
Race 11: 8,9,1
Race 12: 11,5,2
$.50 Ticket: $216
Late Pick 4:
Race 9: 5,3,7,2 5
Race 10: 1,3,8,4 4
Race 11: 8,9,1
Race 12: 11,5,2,9
“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.
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