October 12th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays

*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,125/21,696 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,994/21,696. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Keeneland Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#6 Forward Move 5-2 26 1st $6.50
#2 Messi the Magician 9-2 25
#1 Solo’s Fury 7-2 25
#5 Beary Funny 4-1 24 2nd $4.10

Race 2:

#1 Tommy Two Socks 2-1 30 scratched
#7 Dillinger 8-1 29 2nd $2.80
#1a Master of Arms 2-1 29 scratched
#6 Debate 8-1 28 4th

Race 3:

#1a Belle of the Ball 4-5 27 scratched
#6 Fullmoonmagic 6-1 26 1st $11.60
#4 Starry Midnight 10-1 25 3rd $4.10
#5 Spiritual Lady 5-1 25

Race 4:

#9 Rider’s Special 5-2 28 scratched
#2b Ryan’s Cat 8-1 27
#2 Market Alert 8-1 26 scratched
#6 Nolo Contesto 6-1 25 3rd $3.00

Race 5:

#2 Spaliday 9-5 33 1st $8.30
#6 Style Points 2-1 32 3rd $2.20
#7 Justdeny 5-1 31
#5 Courbe 15-1 30

Race 6:

#3 Skyrush 8-1 20 scratched
#6 Keewaydin 1-1 20 1st $2.40
#8 Stars and Stripes 20-1 19 scratched
#4 Fort Nelson 9-2 18 4th

Race 7:

#5 Risk Threshold (IRE) 5-2 33
#8 Howboutdemapples 12-1 32 scratched
#1 Loon Cry 4-1 32
#3 Love Appeals 6-1 31 2nd $4.50

Race 8:

#5 Bettrluckythangood 3-1 34 4th
#8 Locke and Key 4-1 33
#6 Gem Mint Ten 6-1 32 3rd $7.00
#7 Union Trail 20-1 31

Race 9:

#3 Escalation Clause 7-2 33 2nd $5.30
#8 Pentathlon 3-1 33 4th
#7 General Banker 6-1 32 1st $16.80
#4 Mama’s Gold 8-1 32

Race 10:

#4 Top of the Table 9-2 16 1st $10.20
#1 Splashy 6-5 16 2nd $2.70 Ex $14.80
#12 Majulu 5-2 AE 15 scratched
#9 Better Be Smart 7-2 14 4th
#2 Freud’s Fancy 10-1 14

Race 11:

#7 Dragoneer 4-1 19
#4 Davy Crockett 3-1 18 1st $9.40
#2 Atomic Age 5-2 17 3rd $2.80
#8 Snookie Bear 10-1 16

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 6,2,1

Race 2: 1/1a,7

Race 3: 1a/1,6

Race 4: 9,2b/2,6

Race 5: 2,6

$.50 Ticket: $36

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 1/1a,7,6

Race 3: 1a/1,6,4

Race 4: 9,2b/2,6

Race 5: 2,6

$.50 Ticket: $27

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 9,2b/2,6

Race 5: 2,6

Race 6: 3,6,8,4

Race 7: 5,8,1 *8 scratched using 5,1,3

Race 8: 5,8,6

$.50 Ticket: $108

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 2,6

Race 6: 3,6,8,4

Race 7: 5,8,1,3

Race 8: 5,8,6,7

$.50 Ticket: $64

Pick 6:

Race 6: 3,6

Race 7: 5

Race 8: 5,8,6

Race 9: 3,8

Race 10: 4,1

Race 11: 7,4,2

$1.00 Ticket: $72

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 5,8,1,3

Race 8: 5,8,6

Race 9: 3,8,7

Race 10: 4,1,12 *12 scratched using 4,1,9

Race 11: 7,4,2

$.50 Ticket: $162

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 5,8,6,7

Race 9: 3,8,7,4

Race 10: 4,1,12,9 *12 scratched using 4,1,9,2

Race 11: 7,4,2

$.50 Ticket: $96

Keeneland Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#8 Miss Jeopardy 6-1 28
#5 Miss Sayely 4-1 27 4th
#1 Gridlock 7-2 27 2nd $4.20
#7 Miss Easy 3-1 26 1st $11.86

Race 2:

#10 Executive 7-2 20 3rd $2.60
#1 Paraclete 8-1 19
#8 Governing Party 3-1 18 4th
#5 Lawless Ways 6-1 18

Race 3:

#4 Two Sharp 4-5 33 1st $2.56
#2 Connive 5-1 31 3rd $2.56
#1 Stormy Mitole 8-1 30
#6 Zadorsky 9-2 29 scratched

Race 4:

#6 Global Sensation 3-1 34 2nd $4.14
#8 Gunner Bay 15-1 33 3rd $4.00
#12 Alpine Thunder 9-2 33 1st $8.48 Tri $212.32
#10 Downtownchalybrown 4-1 32 4th Spr $791.80

Race 5:

#12 Tkac 10-1 18
#4 Lucky Mischief 5-2 17 1st $6.70
#8 My Father’s Place 15-1 17
#5 Blue Chair Bay 7-2 16 4th

Race 6:

#3 Bromley 9-2 35
#4 Giant Mischief 6-5 34 1st $3.70
#8 Good Luck 12-1 33 scratched
#1 Kavod 12-1 32 2nd $6.84

Race 7:

#5 Princess Aliyah 10-1 19
#2 Contemplate 8-1 18 scratched
#6 Keepsake 3-1 18 2nd $3.64
#9 Miss Pharaoh 10-1 17

Race 8:

#3 She Feels Pretty 5-2 34 1st $5.08
#9 Grayosh 8-1 33
#4 Waves of Mischief 12-1 32
#5 Soprano (IRE) 7-2 32 2nd $3.66

Race 9:

#4 King Kumbalay 8-1 34 scratched
#5 Parchment Party 7-2 33
#11 Komorebino Omoide 9-5 33
#10 Baton Rouge 9-2 32

Race 10:

#7 Classic Example 10-1 30
#1 Poster 5-1 29 1st $5.76
#5 Blue Coast 4-1 29
#3 Boy Boy 8-1 28 4th

Keeneland Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 8,5,1,7

Race 2: 10,1,8

Race 3: 4,2

Race 4: 6,8,12,10

Race 5: 12,4,8,5

$.50 Ticket: $192

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 10,1,8,5

Race 3: 4,2,1,6

Race 4: 6,8,12

Race 5: 12,4,8,5

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 6:

Race 5: 12,4,8,5

Race 6: 3,4

Race 7: 5,2,6 *2 scratched using 5,6,9

Race 8: 3

Race 9: 4,5,11 *4 scratched using 5,11,10

Race 10: 7,1

$1.00 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 3,4

Race 7: 5,2,6 *2 scratched using 5,6,9

Race 8: 3,9,4,5

Race 9: 4,5,11 *4 scratched using 5,11,10

Race 10: 7,1,5

$.50 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 5,2,6,9

Race 8: 3,9,4,5

Race 9: 4,5,11 *4 scratched using 5,11,10

Race 10: 7,1,5,3

$.50 Ticket: $96

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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