A Winning Day at the Races!

October 15th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,456/17,483, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 7,901/17,483. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct Keeneland Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#7 On the Payroll 12-1                   19
#2 Hola Gata 9-2                             19
#9 Idea Generation (IRE) 7-2        18
#4 Cookie Crumbs 8-1                    18

Dirt Selections

#7 On the Payroll 12-1 scratched
#3 Desert Tempest 8-1 3rd $2.50
#4 Cookis Crumbs 8-1 2nd $3.20
#1a Tonic 6-1

Race 2:

#7 Firewolves 4-5                            15 2nd $2.30
#4 Dancing Sophie 9-2                   13 1st $12.40 Ex $35.60
#3 Tonight We Love 10-1               12 4th
#1 Carlann 10-1                               11

Race 3:

#2 G Munning 2-1                            28 4th
#1 Blitz to Win 5-2                           27 2nd $4.90
#5 Salute to America 15-1              27
#3 Dangerous Edge 5-2                    26 3rd $3.60

Race 4:

#1 Sareeha (IRE) 7-2                         18
#8 Pretty Persuasive 5-1                  17
#3 Western Lane 8-1                         16
#7 Mozay 3-1                                      15

Dirt Selections

#8 Pretty Persuasive 5-1
#7 Mozay 3-1 scratched
#9 Beachfront Bid 10-1 1st $9.50
#10 Yogi 8-1 scratched

Race 5:

#1a Shardial 3-1                               27 scratched
#9 Got the Gold 5-2                         26 4th
#2 Street Culture 7-2                       25 2nd $3.70
#4 Holey Matrimony 4-1                 24 1st $5.60

Race 6:

#5 Celestial Moon 10-1                    19
#1 Bobbie D (IRE) 7-2                       19 2nd $7.00
#10 Outperform 4-1                          18
#9 Aruba 3-1                                       17 3rd $3.30

Race 7:

#1 Derrynane 9-5                              32
#2 Towering Orbit 7-2                      31
#3 Jill’s a Hot Mess 9-2                    30
#1a Kokopelli 9-5                              29

Dirt Selections

#2 Towering Orbit 7-2 scratched
#10 Rossa Veloce 5-2 1st $4.00
#5 Thinking It Over 20-1 2nd $4.00 Ex $13.20
#4 Blame It On Mary 6-1

Race 8:

#8 Chris and Dave 4-1                      32 2nd $6.10
#3 Dust Devil 3-1                               31 4th
#1 Pioneer Spirit 6-1                         31
#9 Jemography 8-1                            30

Race 9:

#2 Vergara 9-2                                    34 2nd $4.80
#1 Skims (GB) 5-1                              33 1st $11.20 Ex $37.40
#9 Pizza Bianca 5-2                            32 4th
#5 Spirit And Glory (IRE) 8-1           31

Race 10:

#9 Miss Tapirado 5-1                          32
#2 Mrs. Green 7-2                                31 1st $11.20
#1 Breeze Easy (GB) 3-1                     30 2nd $3.90
#4 She’s the One 4-1                           29

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  7,2,9,4 Dirt: 7,3,4,1a/1 x

Race 2:  7 x

Race 3:  2,1,5,3 x

Race 4:  1,8,3,7 Dirt: 8,9,3 9

Race 5:  1/1a,9,2 4

$.50 Ticket:  $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  7,4 4

Race 3:  2,1,5,3 x

Race 4:  1,8,3,7 Dirt: 8,9,3 9

Race 5:  1/1a,9,2,4 4

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Pick 6:

Race 5:  1/1a,9,2 4

Race 6:  5,1,10,9 x

Race 7:  1 Dirt: 10 10

Race 8:  8,3,1 x

Race 9:  2,1 1

Race 10: 9,2,1 2

$1.00 Ticket:  $216

Late Pick 5:

Race 6:  5,1,10,9 x

Race 7:  1/1a,2,3 Dirt: 10,5,4 10

Race 8:  8,3,1 x

Race 9:  2,1,9 1

Race 10: 9,2,1 2

$.50 Ticket:  $162

Late Pick 4:

Race 7:  1/1a,2 Dirt: 10,5 10

Race 8:  8,3,1,9 x

Race 9:  2,1,9,5 1

Race 10: 9,2,1,4 2

$.50 Ticket:  $64

Keeneland Selections

Race 1:  Strength Variable:

#1 Mr. Tip 12-1                              31
#5 Backsideofthemoon 9-5         31 2nd $3.16
#6 Frosted Grace 7-2                    30 1st $14.90
#3 Blue Steel 4-1                           29 scratched

Race 2:

#11 Evaluate 3-1                             18
#3 Simply Wow 20-1                      17 scratched
#5 Royal Salute 12-1                      16 3rd $7.00
#9 Iconicus 10-1                              15

Race 3:

#5 Sue Ellen Mishkin 5-2               28 1st $5.66
#4 Bizzy Echo 8-1                            27
#6 Legendary Gift 3-1                     26 2nd $4.34
#2 Forever Home 4-1                       25 3rd $4.00

Race 4:

#6 Macron 9-5                                  33 2nd $2.78
#1 Emerald Express 6-1                  31
#2 Shadow Matter 8-1                     29
#5 Cost Basis 2-1                              28

Race 5:

#7 Greyes Creek 15-1                       34
#8 Winfromwithin 4-1                     33
#4 In Love (BRZ) 3-1                         32 2nd $3.36
#5 Current 15-1                                  31

Race 6:

#7 Sunny River 8-5                            20 2nd $2.34
#4 Inventing 5-2                                19 1st $12.66 Ex $30.64
#8 Forever After All 7-2                    18 4th
#3 Fine Cotton 6-1                             17

Race 7:

#12 Giovannino 6-1                            18
#4 Worthington 7-2                            18 1st $8.06
#11 Ashcroft 3-1                                  17 4th
#5 My Sanctuary 15-1                         16

Race 8:

#6 Your So Sillea 7-2                           29 1st $8.40
#5 Scenic Masterpiece 3-1                 28
#2 Cancel This 2-1                               27 3rd $3.14
#1 Ain’t Broke 4-1                                27 2nd $6.04

Race 9:

#6 McKulick (GB) 1-1                         36 2nd $2.60
#2 Gina Romantica 7-2                      35 1st $11.06 Ex $19.02
#4 New Year’s Eve 9-2                        33 scratched
#5 Bellabel (IRE) 5-1                           32 3rd $2.58 Tri $45.26

Race 10:

#7 Feast 2-1                                           32
#2 Alexandros 12-1                              31
#10 Beverly Park 9-2                            30
#4 Ultimate 8-1                                     29

Keeneland Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1:  1,5,6,3 *3 scratched using 1,5,6,4 6

Race 2:  11,3,5,9 *3 scratched using 11,5,9,2 x

Race 3:  5,4,6 5

Race 4:  6,1 x

Race 5:  7,8,4 x

$.50 Ticket:  $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2:  11,3,5,9 *3 scratched using 11,5,9,2 x

Race 3:  5,4,6 5

Race 4:  6,1,2,5 x

Race 5:  7,8,4 x

$.50 Ticket:  $72

Pick 6:

Race 5:  7,8,4 x

Race 6:  7,4,8 4

Race 7:  12,4,11 4

Race 8:  6,5 6

Race 9:  6 x

Race 10: 7,2,10 *7 scratched using 2,10,4

$1.00 Ticket:  $162

Late Pick 5:

Race 6:  7,4,8 4

Race 7:  12,4,11 4

Race 8:  6,5,2,1 6

Race 9:  6,2 2

Race 10: 7,2,10 *7 scratched using 2,10,4

$.50 Ticket:  $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 7:  12,4,11,5 4

Race 8:  6,5,2,1 6

Race 9:  6,2,4 2

Race 10: 7,2,10 *7 scratched using 2,10,4

$.50 Ticket:  $72

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

 

 

 


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