A Winning Day at the Races!
October 4th, 2024 Free Picks & Plays
*Since the launch of this site eight years ago our statistics have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 65% of the time 14,087/21,638 and top choice first or second 46% of the time 9,964/21,638. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.
*Dealing with health issues, will post Pick/Plays when able…
*Friday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Keeneland Picks/Plays Below…
Aqueduct Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#3 Executive Move 9-5 17 2nd $2.70
#1 Sorority Prank 5-2 16 1st $7.40 Ex $12.40
#6 Humstinger 10-1 16 scratched
#5 Accidental Bid 5-2 15 3rd $2.10 Tri $26
Race 2:
#5 Thegirlfromireland 9-2 30 2nd $4.90
#3 Eternal Silence 7-5 29 scratched
#1 In Time (FR) 5-2 28 3rd $2.10
#4 Therearenorules 15-1 28 4th
Race 3:
#7 Sandy Sweet Tooth 5-2 29 1st $4.20
#6 Camm’ Duke 12-1 28
#5 Very Stormy 9-2 28
#2 Graywing 6-1 27 4th
Race 4:
#9 Suprenant Cocca 6-1 29 2nd $11.40
#10 Next On Stage 5-2 29
#6 She Is Invincible (GB) 8-1 28
#7 Silent Melody 10-1 27
Race 5:
#5 Under Who’s Radar 5-2 32 4th
#1 Gate to Wire 4-1 31 2nd $3.50
#4 In the Chase 8-1 30
#3 Chasing Liberty 7-2 30 scratched
Race 6:
#3 Roswell 4-5 31
#4 Golden Degree 8-1 30 1st $11.40
#7 Cara’s Time 3-1 29 2nd $3.80
#6 Killy Star 10-1 28 4th
Race 7:
#2 Avenue Niel (IRE) 10-1 34 4th
#5 Beautiful Love (IRE) 8-1 33 3rd $4.40
#6 Idea Generation (IRE) 5-1 33
#7 Mckulick (GB) 9-5 32
Race 8:
#4 Heymackit’sjack 9-2 30 1st $12.60
#3 Li’l Lang 7-2 29
#10 Twisted Filigree 9-2 28 3rd $4.20
#9 Your Man Alex 10-1 27
Aqueduct Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 3,1,6,5
Race 2: 5,3,1 *3 scratched using 5,1,4
Race 3: 7,6,5
Race 4: 9,10,6
Race 5: 5,1,4
$.50 Ticket: $162
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 5,3,1 *3 scratched using 5,1,4
Race 3: 7,6,5,2
Race 4: 9,10,6,7
Race 5: 5,1,4
$.50 Ticket: $72
Pick 6:
Race 3: 7,6,5
Race 4: 9,10
Race 5: 5,1
Race 6: 3
Race 7: 2,5,6
Race 8: 4,3
$1.00 Ticket: $72
Late Pick 5:
Race 4: 9,10,6,7
Race 5: 5,1,4
Race 6: 3,4,7
Race 7: 2,5,6,7
Race 8: 4,3
$.50 Ticket: $144
Late Pick 4:
Race 5: 5,1,4,3
Race 6: 3,4,7
Race 7: 2,5,6,7
Race 8: 4,3,10,9
$.50 Ticket: $96
Keeneland Selections
Race 1: Strength Variable:
#6 Gatlinburg 4-1 29
#3 Ask Arthur 6-1 28
#7 Parkway 5-2 28 4th
#1 Overstatement 10-1 27 2nd $5.70
Race 2:
#3 Test Score 3-1 20 1st $6.74
#8 West Beach 5-2 19 2nd $2.94 Ex $14.30
#1 Scorpius 8-1 18
#9 Helicity 5-1 18
Race 3:
#4 Prodigieux 9-2 20 scratched
#11 Upon a Star 9-5 20 4th
#6 Lord I Wonder 5-1 19 2nd $7.68
#9 Islander 10-1 18 3rd $6.80
Race 4:
#6 Eclatant 6-5 21 1st $3.06
#7 Tapit First 8-1 20
#11 Tiz Purple 9-2 19
#9 Dreamgirl 15-1 18
Race 5:
#8 Self Confident 4-1 31
#6 Good American (GB) 8-1 30 4th
#10 Olivia Maralda (IRE) 3-1 29
#1 Dreaming of Mo 6-1 28 2nd $5.92
Race 6:
#2 Montalcino 9-5 33 1st $4.30
#9 Banned for Life 5-2 32 2nd $3.48 Ex $11.98
#1 Air of Defiance 4-1 31
#3 Linebacker 6-1 30 scratched
Race 7:
#4 Nakatomi 7-5 41 2nd $2.80
#5 Comedy Town 4-1 39 3rd $3.18
#1 Federal Judge 3-1 39 1st $5.48 Tri $39.40
#2 Here Mi Song 6-1 38 4th Spr $81.60
Race 8:
#6 Destino d’Oro 3-1 31 3rd $2.62
#9 Totally Justified 6-1 30 2nd $6.26
#2 Isle of Capri 9-2 29 scratched
#5 Mechaya 15-1 28 4th
Race 9:
#8 Immersive 2-1 34 1st $5.34
#7 Quietside 5-2 33 3rd $2.76
#6 Quickick 4-1 31 2nd $4.50 Tri $60.44
#5 The Queens M G 6-1 31 scratched
Race 10:
#6 Baraye 7-2 35
#7 Cloudwalker 4-1 34
#5 Share the Blessing 15-1 33
#9 Independenceavenue 10-1 32
Keeneland Plays
Early Pick 5:
Race 1: 6,3,7
Race 2: 3,8,1,9
Race 3: 4,11,6 *4 scratched using 11,6,9
Race 4: 6,7,11
Race 5: 8,6,10
$.50 Ticket: $162
Early Pick 4:
Race 2: 3,8
Race 3: 4,11,6,9
Race 4: 6,7,11,9
Race 5: 8,6,10,1
$.50 Ticket: $64
Pick 6:
Race 5: 8,6,10
Race 6: 2,9
Race 7: 4
Race 8: 6,9,2
Race 9: 8,7,6
Race 10: 6,7
$1.00 Ticket: $108
Late Pick 5:
Race 6: 2,9
Race 7: 4,5,1
Race 8: 6,9,2
Race 9: 8,7,6,5
Race 10: 6,7
$.50 Ticket: $72
Late Pick 4:
Race 7: 4,5
Race 8: 6,9,2,5
Race 9: 8,7,6,5
Race 10: 6,7,5,9
$.50 Ticket: $64
“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.
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